March 11, 2024 7:31am
Mixed signals, investors will face a test before the Fed's March 20 meeting when the February Consumer Prince Index (CPI) report out Tuesday offers an updated look at inflation. Retail sales and consumer sentiment reports will also feature on the economic calendar in the back half of the week.
News: Mesoblast (MESO +$0.34) U.S. FDA supports an accelerated approval pathway for rexlemestrocel-L, Mesoblast’s allogeneic mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) product, in patients with end-stage ischemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and a left ventricular assist device (LVAD).
Pre-open Thoughts: 1 Sell into Strength, 2 Positive and 3 Negative Indications
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Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing.
Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.20% or (-78 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.13% or (-6 points) as the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.14% or (-27 points)
U.S. stock futures fell on Monday,
European markets had a negative start,
Asia Pacific markets were lower although China’s Hang Seng rose
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes retreated on Friday, closing down after a bumpy week …
As the Dow closed DOWN -64.24 points or -0.17%, the S&P closed DOWN -33.65 points -0.65% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN – 188.26 points or -1.16%
And at the open, the cell and gene therapy sector was positive with 30 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 16 incliners, 19 decliners and 0 flat
While last week, all 3 major indexes finished a bumpy week lower; the S&P 500 pulled back -0.26%, the Dow dived -0.93% and Nasdaq fell -1.17%.
Last week, its decline marked the worst week for the 30-stock Dow since October.
Economic Data Docket: New York Fed one-year inflation expectations, February (3% previously)
The coming week starts with a couple of key inflation indicators. Both were probably boosted by rising gasoline prices. The retail pump price is up 9.1% since the last week of January.
- February data reporting expects headline inflation to log an annual gain of 3.1%, unchanged from the headline number in January < estimates from Bloomberg>. Prices are set to rise 0.4% on a month-over-month basis, an increase from the 0.3% rise seen in January.
- On a "core" basis, which strips out food and energy, prices are expected to have increased 3.7% year over year, a slowdown from the 3.9% increase seen in January. Monthly core price increases are expected to clock in at 0.3%, lower than the 0.4% increase seen in January.
Friday’s night RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “a drop the mic (microphone) ending for the sector. Just another I told you so … when it comes to cell and gene therapy sector investing and trading; the trend is NOT your friend. Just wait a session or even a mid-day and the direction will change from tailwinds to headwinds in a way of making a striking close.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13364
Mesoblast (MESO) continued: FDA provided this feedback in formal minutes to the company following the Type B meeting held with FDA on February 21, 2024 for rexlemestrocel-L (Revascor®) under the existing Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation.
Q1/24: march – 2 positive and 4 negative closes
- February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
- January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.98 after Thursday’s +$0.74 and Wednesday’s -$0.08 with a positive +$0.26 or +2.33% pre-open indication.
Positive indication:
Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Mesoblast Limited (MESO; ASX: MSB) closed down -$0.05 with a positive +$0.34 or +15.81%e-open indication of U.S. FDA supports an accelerated approval pathway for rexlemestrocel-L, Mesoblast’s allogeneic mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) product.
Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.06 after Thursday’s -$0.28, Wednesday’s +$0.36, Tuesday’s -$0.71 and Monday’s +$0.03 with a positive +$0.19 or +2.35% pre-open indication.
Negative indication
Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.26 after Thursday’s +$1.66 after Wednesday’s +$0.71, Tuesday’s -$1.13 and Monday’s -$4.32 with a negative -$1.40 or -1.52% pre-open indication.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.32 after Thursday’s -$0.41, Wednesday’s -$0.21 and Tuesday’s -$1.84 with a negative -$0.63 or -1.25% pre-open indication.
Vericel (VCEL +$0.38) closed up +$0.38 after Thursday’s -$0.36 and Wednesday’s +$0.72 with a negative -$1.18 or -2.60% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: Time to be cautious and 4:03 a.m. comes early each day!
As the Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs on Friday before reversing lower in a downside session.
March has had 2 positive and 4 negative closes; last week, the cell and gene therapy sector equities last week battled:
- Friday (with a negative close of 16 incliners, 19 decliners and 0 flat),
- Thursday (closed negative close of 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats) after
- Wednesday (closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat),
- Tuesday's sharp losses (closed negative with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 flat),
- Monday’s (closed negative with 6 incliners, 27 decliners and 2 flats) decline,
The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical as the RegMed sector continues earnings’ in LPS (loss-per-share) season, estimates and consensus which set market reaction and will report “runways” and those whose cash positions render their future questionable.
21 (of 35 covered companies) have reported …14 are left to release earnings of my covered group.
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13166
I STILL reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector.”
Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!
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From Friday’s market:
- The small-cap Russell 2000 gave up Friday gains but rose 0.5% for the week, hitting 23-month highs.
- The 10-year Treasury yield sank 9 basis points to 4.08%, its third straight weekly decline.
- The two-year Treasury yield, more closely tied to Fed policy, retreated 5 basis points to 4.48%.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
