November 30, 2021 7:42am
After a weak aftermarket, expectation is not a strength reality as we are still in a share pricing risk danger zone
Pre-open indications: 4 BUYs, 4 SELLs
News: Athersys (ATHX +$0.12 in pre-market) announced a manuscript reporting data concerning patients at 12 intensive care units in the United Kingdom and the U.S., the study confirmed that intravenous administration of MultiStem cell therapy was well-tolerated among critically ill patients early in the course of moderate to severe ARDS.
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing!
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
Dow futures are DOWN -0.93% (-326 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.77% (-36 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.39% (-64 points)
Stock futures tumbled in early Tuesday trading as markets reassessed the risks associated with the new Covid variant,
European markets were down and headed lower,
Asia-Pacific markets were also mostly lower by Tuesday’s close
Henry’omics:
Indexes closed higher on Monday, regaining some of the ground they lost in Friday's sell-off; however, “our universe” of stem, cell and gene therapy equities dived yet again.
Fed Chair Powell believes that the omicron variant poses a threat to the central bank’s mandate to achieve stable prices and maximum employment in remarks he plans to deliver to Senate lawmakers today.
The CBOE volatility index, the VIX or fear gauge, declined during Monday’s rally but jumped to 5.68 points or 19.78% to 22.96 still below Friday’s 28.62.
News (continued): Athersys (ATHX) announced today that a manuscript reporting data from the Company’s MUST-ARDS clinical trial have been published in the peer-reviewed journal Intensive Care Medicine.
- MUST-ARDS was a randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled Phase 1/2 trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of MultiStem® (invimestrocel) cell therapy in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
- The trial also assessed multiple efficacy endpoints, including mortality, liberation from mechanical ventilation, discharge from intensive care, and quality of life (QoL) among survivors over one full year of recovery.
- Mechanisms of action were further explored by comparing acute changes in plasma inflammatory and lung injury biomarkers in MultiStem-treated and placebo-treated study participants.
- The results of this study provided the basis for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to grant the Company’s ARDS program Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) and Fast Track designation.
If you didn’t remember what happen at Monday night’s close, you won’t be prepared for today’s session:
Monday’s evening’s recap: “Monday wasn’t quite the cell and gene therapy sector opportunity as I had questioned, what was sustainable? For SELLING into Friday’s rout as the sector continued to roll downward.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12202
Q4: November, 1 holiday, 5 positive and 15 negative close to date
- October, 8 positive and 13 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Maintaining SELL:
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed down -$0.40 to $2.00 with 6,025 shares traded after Friday’s +$0.10 with 100 shares traded after Wednesday closed flat with 15 shares traded and last Tuesday’s flat with 0 shares traded.
- Earnings release: Biostage (BSTG) had a net loss of -$800 K, or -$0.80, a $200 K decrease in grant income and a cash position of $2 m—still with NO clinical trial with a 2-year-old IND. Add in some legal negligence ... where its insurance carrier will NOT cover the terminal death suit filed.
What’s there to invest in – the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over its recent insurance company rejection of legal expense/costs of a terminal death suit against the company?
- For a company with NO clinical trial, an a one (1) and a half year approved IND, four (4) employees and NO CRO <clinical research organization> initiation. It’s fake since you can’t make it …
- What’s “scary” is a $71.1 m deficit and continue as a “going concern” which also REQUIRES additional funding for future operations.
- What was the last financial/comparable model that justified aa $4.71 pricing to that last PPM (private placement memorandum)?
- Which accounting “firm” audited the Q3 report?
Probabilities versus aftermarket/pre-open share pricing indication moves:
Hammered on Friday and Monday … BUY:
Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.01 to $1.02 after Friday’s $1.03 and Wednesday’s $1.04 with a +$0.12 or +1.17% pre-open indication on news (above),
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down again -$0.32 to $8.37 after Friday’s -$0.03 to $8.69 and Wednesday’s +$0.38 to $8.72 with a positive +$0.12 or +1.43% pre-open indication.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down again -$1.60 to $27.45 after Friday’s -$0.71 to $29.05 with a positive +$0.05 or +0.18% aftermarket indication.
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.81 to $77.98 after Friday’s up +$0.84 to $80.92 with a negative -$0.98 or -1.26% pre-open indication.
Stung on Monday and Friday - SELL:
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed down -$0.75 to $51.77 after Friday’s +$2.23 to $54.42 and Wednesday’s $54.42 with a negative -$0.47 or -0.91% aftermarket indication.
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down again -$0.79 to $38.53 after Friday’s -$0.69 to $39.32 and Wednesday’s +$0.27 to $40.01 with a negative -$0.28 or -0.73% pre-open indication.
Verastem (VSTM) closed down again -$0.09 to $2.59 after Friday’s -$0.12 to $2.68 and has a negative -$0.07 or -2.70% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: I asked on Monday “Is this the start of a significant market slide … and sector collapse?”
Answer, I haven’t seen any indication of a quick rebound? “The current uncertainty makes it difficult to consider a sustainable sector rally. Investors should be maintaining thus, playing defense rather than offense until conditions clearly improve.”
“Monday gave investors another example of how selling on down days can lead to poor outcomes. In many ways, those who are more susceptible to panic-selling under pressure would have been better served having simply taken a long weekend to ignore what the markets did on Friday.” <The Motley Fool>
And we can’t ignore the outcomes …
Don't necessarily be in a rush to sell; wait for some strength, then consider triggering tax losses … early.
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.
WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
