October 24, 2022 4:43pm

Softening sector sentiment as earnings reporting LPS (loss-per-share) haunt the coming releases

Pre-open indications: 7 Hits and 2 Miss

News: Applied Genetics Technology (AGTC) acquired/sold-off in "fire sale"

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”!  I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths

It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +417.06 points (+1.34%), the S&P closed UP +44.61 points (+1.19%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +92.90 points (+0.86%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose Monday as traders tried to add to sharp gains seen last week and weighed the latest moves in rates.

“A report from S&P Global showed a contraction in business activity this month, offering a hint that the Federal Reserve's barrage of steep interest rate hikes is having their desired effect, raising hopes that the central bank could begin slowing the pace of increases to the Fed funds target rate.” <Reuters>

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “downshift following a volatile week” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12664  

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened

  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 10 up/25 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9/26 and 0 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 Hit <Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.41), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.75), CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.44), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0088), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.56), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.20), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.55)> 2 Miss < Agenus (AGEN -$0.03), Avrobio (AVRO +$0.02),

 

Key Metrics:

  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 26-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.06% and the XBI was down -0.47%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.20 points or +0.67% at 29.89

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (9 of 9):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.65 after Friday’s +$0.58),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.36),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.21 after Friday’s +$0.52),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.20),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.08),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.05 after Friday’s -$0.24),
  • Avrobio (AVRO +$0.0291 after Friday’s -$0.0066),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0168),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0088 after Friday’s -$0.0027),

Closing down (10 of 26):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.03 after Friday’s +$5.87),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.55 after Friday’s +$0.61),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.41 after Friday’s +$0.84),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.35 after Friday’s +$0.66),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.05 after Friday’s +$0.57),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.79 after Friday’s +$0.60),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.75 after Friday’s +$0.23),
  • Prime Therapeutics (PRME -$0.56),
  • CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.44 after Friday’s -$0.45),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.38),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.38 after Friday’s +$0.76,

 

Q4 - October

  • Monday closed negative with 9 incliner, 26 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The algorithms swapped sides after Friday’s positive close.

I try to keep it simple … and short!

BIG story for Monday, Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) got “taken-out” by Syncona (SYNC).

  • AGTC’s CEO mismanagement was its ONLY way-out … leaving investors out-of-the-money in relation to past pricing with an upfront cash offer to shareholders at a “current” premium of approximately 42% to the current share price.
  • From this a.m.,“The Bottom Line: It's more than a "shame" that the board of directors led by Dr. Scott Koenig, let AGTC spiral downward under CEO and president Sue Washer!”

 

  • WHY couldn’t Applied Genetic Technologies get out from under the “boulder” of share pricing compression – Sue Washer, CEO and never forget president (love all those titles) NEVER had the right answers for the past two (2) years, time for a management change …

·         Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed up +$0.149 to $0.39; the biggest move in a year!

·         AGTC also had 20 sessions into getting delisted (under $1.00)

We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is the first to declare is Q3 earnings report on Thursday, 10/27 at 8:30 a.m. MiMedx (MDXG) comes in second on 11/2, Wednesday at 5 p.m.; AxoGen (AXGN) on 11/8, Tuesday at 8 a.m.

Remember, historically October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news and the stock drops after a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

·         AVRO closed up +$0.0291 after Friday’s down -$0.0066, Thursday (down) -$0.0065, Wednesday’s -$0.0322 to $0.65, Tuesday +$0.07 after ILAP designation from the UK news after Monday’s +$0.02 to $0.60 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.

·         AVRO’s 41th session of under $1.00,

·         Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?

·         OR, will they “pull” an AGTC?

Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM) closed down -$0.0045 to $0.307; its 22st session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq

October has 1 neutral, 8 positive and 7 negative closes;

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.