January 6, 2023 5:15pm
Look at the week’s advance/decline lines – chaotic after a crappy 2022 as sentiment is influenced by economics while share pricing swells on eve of JPM23
Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits and 1 Miss
Avrobio (AVRO) closed sold-off -$0.227 or -2.60% to $0.81 with 353,262 as delisting racks-up more sessions, which could be eventually removed from Nasdaq. Investors are confused to WHY CEO MacKay continues to NOT addressed the company’s share pricing requirement.
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The week in review - TGIF
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +699.71 points (+2.12%), the S&P closed UP +86.90 points (+2.28%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +264.05 points (+2.56%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes garnered Friday after the December jobs report and an economic data showed signs that inflation may be cooling as the Fed considers interest rate hikes.
Friday’s rally helped stocks end in positive territory for the week. The Dow and S&P 500 each closed the week up 1.5% while the Nasdaq advanced 1%.
Investors reacted to data showing the labor market and wage growth finally starting to cool-off.
Economic Data Docket: The December nonfarm payrolls report showed that the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs last month, slightly higher than the expected 200,000 jobs.
- ISM’s nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ index showed that the services industry contracted in December, a sign that the Fed’s rate hikes may be working to slow the economy.
Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits <Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.40), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.67), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.76), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$6.76), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.57), Vericel (VCEL -$0.59)> and 1 MISS < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.95)>
Thursday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “wait for it. The sector has a lot to prove its value, share pricing strength depends on catalysts and collaborators/partners, not algorithms.” https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12774
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 26 up/ 7 down and 2 flats, flipped positive with 21 up/ 12 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 18/15 and 2 flats
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 17 up/ 18 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 16/17 and 2 flats
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 6 down and 4 flats, stayed positive with 27 up/ 7 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 7/27 and 1 flat
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 24 up/ 10 down and 1 flat, flipped negative at 12 p.m. with 12 up/22 down and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day, with 14 up/ 20 down and 1 flat ending with a negative close of 15/18 and 2 flats.
- Monday was a market holiday
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was up +1% and the XBI was up +0.85%
- Thursday, the IBB was up +0.11% and the XBI was down -0.86%
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.28% and the XBI was up +2.11%
- Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.95% and the XBI was down -1.76%
- Monday – a market holiday
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -1.44 points or -6.41% at 21.02
- Thursday was up +0.48 points or +2.18% at 22.49
- Wednesday was down -0.77 points or -3.36% at 22.13
- Tuesday was up +1.15 points or +5.31% at 22.82
- Monday – a market holiday
Closing Down (10 of 15):
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$6.76 <-61.45%> with Janssen collaboration/deal terminating),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.04 after Thursday’s +$0.56, Wednesday’s -$0.29, Tuesday’s -$1.04 after Monday’s holiday),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.76),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.69 after Thursday’s -$0.34 and Wednesday’s +$4.48),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.68 after Thursday’s -$7.18, Wednesday’s -$0.73, Tuesday’s -$4.06 after Monday’s holiday),
- Vericel VCEL -$0.59 after Thursday’s -$1.04),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.57 after Thursday’s -$0.21, Wednesday’s +$1.92 and Tuesday’s -$0.81),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.24 after Thursday’s +$2.45, Wednesday’s +$4.00, Tuesday’s +$0.35 after Monday’s holiday),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.09),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.07),
Flat (2):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG after Thursday’s - $1.01),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
Closing Up (10 of 18):
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.95 after Thursday’s +$0.18, Wednesday’s +$1.89, Tuesday’s -$0.87 and Monday’s holiday),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.74 after Thursday’s -$1.14),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.67),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.46 after Thursday’s +$0.54 and Wednesday’s -$0.11),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.44),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.43 after Thursday’s -$0.25, Wednesday’s +$1.36, Tuesday’s -$0.45 and Monday’s holiday),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.40 after Thursday’s +$0.87 and Wednesday’s +$1.67),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.40 after Thursday’s -$0.50, Wednesday’s +$0.99, Tuesday’s -$0.53 and Monday’s holiday),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.36 after Thursday’s -$0.34),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.27 after Thursday’s +$0.18),
Q1/23 – January
- Friday closed positive with 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 2 flats
- Thursday closed negative with 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
- Wednesday closed positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 1 flat
- Tuesday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
- Monday – a market holiday
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
The sector flipped to the upside – barely after Thursday’s downside … following the jobs report stimulated the economics of the market and sector to a “hiking” mode.
Although, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
From yesterday’s post:
· “The “glitter” of JPM23’s healthcare Conference<next week> should highlight “disparities” of the sector!
· Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.
· Be wary of buying stocks on the first "blip" of strength. It's still time to be cautious about any new buys.
· Buy signals and breakouts could quickly fizzle if the market falls back again.
There are VERY clear losers today … Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Prime Medicine (PRME), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – all week to the wayside.
… With winners … Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and AxoGen (AXGN) ascending.
Reiterating, “The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities.”
Avrobio (AVRO closed down -$0.0227 with 294,842 shares trading after Thursday’s +$0.02 with 609,564 share traded after Wednesday’s +$0.0825 with 653, 056 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.04 95 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s down -$0.0176.
The last two sessions say a lot of addressing the delisting issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed flat with 25 shares traded after Thursday’s -$1.10 with 2,634 shares traded after Wednesday’s flat with 1 share traded, Tuesday’s +$1.31 with only 130 shares traded (they keep buying the shares with a pump/promote agenda) after Monday’s holiday and last Friday’s +$0.49 with 1,446 shares traded. <3-month average volume =1,777 shares>
· Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following USA rules!!
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
