August 30, 2023 7:42am
The sector flew high, has it overreached its limits and will algorithms and electronic trading let the sector’s share pricing keep its wings/pricing?
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing.
Pre-Open Indications: 5 Negative and 1 Sell into Strength Indications
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are DOWN -0.01% or (-4 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.12% or (-5 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.19% or (-30 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures were down and fluctuating Wednesday,
European stock markets slipped,
Asia-Pacific markets were up.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Tuesday indexes floated up like a balloon as The Dow closed UP +292.69 or +0.85%, the S&P closed UP +64.32 or +1.45% while the Nasdaq closed UP +238.63 points or+1.74%.
Economic Data Docket: GDP numbers, pending home sales data and ADP’s jobs data.
Tuesday’s (8/29) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “slippage as sector share pricing stays positive at close while digesting weak economic data; investors looked to the final days of what has been a difficult August for the cell and gene therapy sector.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13099
Ebb and flow:
Q3: August – 9 positive and 12 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Q2/23 -
· June -1 Holiday, 8 negative and 11 positive closes
· May – 10 negative and 12 positive closes
· April ended - 1 holiday, 8 positive close and 11 negative closes
Q1/23 –-
· March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes
· February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Negative Indications:
Tuesday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$2.80 after Monday’s +$2.40 after Friday’s +$2.49 after Thursday’s -$3.61 with a negative -$3.70 or -1.90% aftermarket indication.
AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$0.25 with a negative -$0.07 or -1.05% aftermarket indication.
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.61 with a negative -$0.07 or -0.17% aftermarket indication
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$0.20 after Monday’s +$0.54, Friday’s +$0.51, Thursday’s +$0.09, last Wednesday’s +$0.40 followed by the previous Tuesday’s +$0.12 and Monday’s -$0.35 with a negative -$0.46 or -1.12% aftermarket indication.
Generation Bio (GBIO) closed up +$0.27 after Monday’s +$0.36 and Friday’s -$0.21 with a negative -$0.26 or -4.85% aftermarket indication.
Sell into Strength:
Tuesday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.22 after Monday’s -$0.42 with a positive +$0.96 or +2.97% aftermarket indication
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
Let’s get to the point, few adverbs and even fewer adjectives, no vacillating; I get right to the point, telling investors what has meaning and why news or indications matter.
Icarus, a classical mythology metaphor; was a youth who attempted to escape from Crete with wings of wax and feathers but flew so high that his wings melted from the heat of the sun, and he plunged to his death in the sea.
Will the algorithms and electronic trading let the sector keep its gains/wings?
Closes: 7 positives out of 10
· Tuesday closed positive with 20 incliners, 14 decliners and 1 flat
· Monday closed positive with 24 incliners, 11 decliners and 0 flat
· Friday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
· Thursday closed negative with 11 incliners, 23 decliners and 1 flat
· Wednesday closed positive with 26 incliners, 6 decliners and 3 flats
· Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliners, 13 decliners and 3 flats
· Monday closed positive with 20 incliners, 13 decliners and 2 flats
· Friday closed positive with 17 incliners, 16 decliners and 2 flats
· Thursday closed negative with 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat
· Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flat
Metrics: IBB and XBI
· Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.07% and the XBI was up +0.48%
· Monday, the IBB was up +0.41% and the XBI was up +0.34%
· Friday, the IBB was up +0.57% and the XBI was up +1.12%
· Thursday, the IBB was down -0.91% and the XBI was down -1.38%
· Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.58% and the XBI was up +0.63%
· Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.06% and the XBI was down -0.03%
· Monday, the IBB was up +1.46% and the XBI was up +1.11%
Indexes:
· Tuesday, the Dow closed UP +292.69 or +0.85%, the S&P closed UP +64.32 or +1.45% while the Nasdaq closed UP +238.63 points or +1.74%
· Monday, the Dow closed UP +213.08 or +0.62%, the S&P closed UP +27.60 or +0.63% while the Nasdaq closed UP +114.48 points (+0.84%)
· Friday, the Dow closed UP +247.48 or +0.73%, the S&P closed UP +29.40 or +0.67% while the Nasdaq closed UP +126.67 points (+0.94%)
· Thursday, the Dow closed DOWN -373.56 or -1.08%, the S&P closed DOWN -59.70 or -1.35% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -257.06 points (-1.87%)
· Last Wednesday, the Dow closed UP +184.35 or +0.54%, the S&P closed UP +48.48 or +1.10% while the Nasdaq closed UP +215.16 points (+1.59%)
Bad News: one more slims …
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) is laying off 225 people amid safety concerns over its new eye-disorder drug
· In the “form” of a corporate restructuring to drive growth of SYFOVRE® (pegcetacoplan injection) and EMPAVELI® (pegcetacoplan), positioning Apellis for long-term success. This restructuring will include cost reduction initiatives that align near-term priorities and are expected to result in up to $300 M in total cost savings through 2024.
Reiterating, “I am for a number of exits … with investors holding on to the railings for new reads on the well-being of the US economy as a dismal August draw to a close.
My “posts” are conveyed with a simplicity of language to highlight what is informative. I am mostly an optimist, yet I also believe that patterns exist.
It “ain’t” been a good August for the cell and gene therapy sector as it suffers 6 positive and 11 negative closes so far… which could also be a set-up for profit reaping in view of economic and inflation “readings”
As I had stated Monday, I am NOT confident that some cell and gene therapy sector equities can continue ascending to the upside; unfortunately, it is STILL a “musical chairs” game!
Risk is riskier …
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
