October 10, 2023 5:51pm

“Uncle algo” and his electronic trading cousins came to visit assisting the seasonal volatility, macroeconomic and pricing dynamic environment

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

The war winds are accelerating and the blowing dust-up cloud will spread; it will take many a day/week/month to understand what the impact will actually be?

Never leave an investor uninformed!

 

The Dow closed UP +134.65 points or +0.40%, the S&P closed UP +22.58 points or +0.52% while the Nasdaq closed UP +78.61 points or +0.58%

 

What’s SAFE … “No one company is immune in the sector and this market of rolling downdrafts? Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!”

Investors are going to need to prepare for another reporting cycle to confirm whether or not a bottom is even close to happening.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose Tuesday, boosted by declines in Treasury yields as traders and markets assessed the geopolitical risks from the Israel-Hamas war.

Economic Data Docket: The consumer outlook for where inflation is headed worsened slightly in September, according to a New York Fed survey. Expectations for inflation a year from now increased to 3.7%, up 0.1 percentage point from August, the survey showed. On a three-year basis, the outlook rose to 3%, up 0.2 percentage point. That came even though the outlook for gas, medical care and rent all declined. Also in the survey, the expectation for the cost of education increase decelerated, down to 5.8% from 8.2%, the biggest one-month decline in the survey’s history. <CNBC>

 

Tuesday (10/10) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “current reality turns out to be a little less appealing. The sector is being driven by the same theme - until we get some optimism, the path of least resistance is lower.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13156   

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 21 up/ 10 down and 4 flats, stayed positive with 29 up/ 5 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow:

Q4:  October – 3 negative and 4 positive closes

·         Q3: September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes

·         August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes

·          July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.81% and the XBI was up +0.67%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.67 point or -3.79% at 17.03

 

Closing Down (6 of 6):

  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.35),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.28 after Monday’s -$0.17),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.98),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.06),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.025),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0066)

Flat (1):

  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN $0.00 after Monday’s $0.00 after Friday’s +$0.58)

Closing Up (10 of 28):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.33 after Monday’s -$0.55),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$ after Monday’s +$0.45),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.75 after Monday’s +$0.18),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.74 after Monday’s -$8.60),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$),
  • Vericel (VCEL) +$0.38 after Monday’s +$0.27),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.37 after Monday’s -$0.29),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.36 after Monday’s +$0.49)
  • uniQure NV (QURE $0.24 after Monday’s -$0.34),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.24 after Monday’s -$0.14)

 

Q4/23 – October

  • Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Indexes closed higher on Tuesday,

  • To notch their 3rd straight day of gains, after dovish comments from the Fed officials pushed Treasury yields lower as investors cautiously monitored developments in the Middle East.
  • Everybody has one eye on the Middle East conflict and one eye on what's happening with bond yields.

The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing popped on Tuesday after Monday and Friday declines following Thursday “ascension” post pooping the bed on last Wednesday after rising on the previous Tuesday.

A relevant quote from yesterday, "Geopolitical risk doesn't tend to linger long in markets, but there are many second-order impacts that could come through in the weeks, months, and years ahead from this weekend's developments." <Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid>.

 

What’s behind the numbers:

  • The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 12 basis points to about 4.6%, as investors sought safe assets amid the conflict.
  • Oil prices also eased after rallying in the previous session, providing relief to investors.
  • Cell and gene therapy equities flew as small caps invited algorithms and electronic traders came to visit with the upside ascension.
  • The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 19.95 points, or 1.1% to 1,775.95. <IBD>
  • Volume jumped on the Nasdaq and grew 9% versus Monday,
  • Focus should be on the upcoming quarterly earnings season!

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) -2x and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) 

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Tuesday: MiMedx (MDXG), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Blueprint Medine (BPMC)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and uniQure NV (QURE)

 

Right up front, “I hate to be negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.