October 11, 2023 4:50pm

 

I do, as an independent and objective arbiter of share pricing facts to be entered into evidence as sector dived and markets drifted ...

Pre-open indications: 9 Hits and 1 Miss

Algorithms might account for new patterns to fix anomalies in sector the performance. Remember, ETFs can’t define the cause and effect of relationship between the key factors that explain future outcomes!

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

As I have written to Investors: What went Up will come DOWN!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

The Dow closed UP +65.57 points or +0.19%, the S&P closed UP +18.71 points or +0.43% while the Nasdaq closed UP +96.83 points or +0.71%

 

What’s SAFE … “No one company is immune in the sector and this market of rolling downdrafts? Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!”

Investors are going to need to prepare for another reporting cycle to confirm whether or not a bottom is even close to happening.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed positive and rangebound Wednesday as traders awaited the release of consumer inflation numbers while treasury yields continued to retreat from the 16-year highs reached last week.

Economic Data Docket: The producer price index (which measures costs for finished goods that producers pay) increased 0.5% for September following the estimate for a 0.3% rise.

  • Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up 0.3%, versus the forecast for 0.2%. Inflation pressures came primarily from final demand goods, which surged 0.9% on the month, while services increased 0.3% while final demand trade services costs increased 0.5%.

 

Wednesday (10/11) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “the constancy of volatility is menacing. Amid the ongoing cell and gene therapy sector volatility, “our” universe’s trend remains " in a constant correction." That means that investors are safer on the sidelines as again … earnings are coming.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13158

 

Pre-Open Indications: 9 Hits < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.03), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.01), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +0.89), Vericel (VCEL -$1.21), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.05), AxoGen (AXGN -$0.31), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.34), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.01), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.09)> and 1 Miss <Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.08)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 12 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 10 up/ 23 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 21 decliners and 4 flats

 

52-week low:

  • Prime Medicine (PRME) at $7.35

 

Ebb and flow:

Q4:  October – 5 negative and 3 positive closes

·         Q3: September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes

·         August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes

·          July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.49% and the XBI was down -1.05%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.85 points or -4.99% at 16.18

 

Closing Down (10 of 21):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.24 after Tuesday’s +$0.74 and Monday’s -$8.60),
  • Vericel (VCEL) -$1.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$0.27),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.08 after Tuesday’s -$0.28 after Monday’s -$0.17),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.54),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.44),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.92 after Monday’s +$0.45),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.31),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.25 after Tuesday’s +$0.37 after Monday’s -$0.29),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.17 after Tuesday’s -$0.35),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.15)

Flat (4):

  • Agenus (AGEN)
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.025),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Closing Up (10 of 10):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.89 after Tuesday’s +$1.33 after Monday’s -$0.55),
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.26),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.12),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.05),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.05 after Tuesday’s $0.24 after Monday’s -$0.34),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN +0.03$ after Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s $0.00),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.03 after Tuesday’s +$0.36 and Monday’s +$0.49)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.0214),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.005),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.0046 after Tuesday’s -$0.0066)

 

Q4/23 – October

  • Wednesday closed negative with 10 incliners, 21 decliners and 4 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Wednesday, cell and gene therapy sector equities dived from overbought levels after a positive opening rally while traders awaited clues on the outlook for Fed policy.

A daily analytic discipline is constructed by period updates and specific warnings of emerging situations …

  • Insight is about understanding perception and also putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment
  • Spare the sell call, ruin the portfolio
  • The PPI reading suggests that inflationary pressures remain despite the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes.
  • Minutes from the central bank's last meeting confirmed that Fed members see one more hike in the bank's two meetings this year. 

 

The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing DIVED on Wednesday …

  • After popping on Tuesday after Monday and Friday declines following Thursday “ascension” post and then “pooping the bed” on last Wednesday.

 

A relevant quote, “Tomorrow’s CPI could paint a different picture, but today’s PPI suggests we haven’t seen the end of sticky inflation — and high interest rates. Either way, investors will need to remain patient. Lowering inflation significantly from last year’s highs was one challenge, getting it down to the Fed’s 2% target level is another.” <Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office>

 

Quote from yesterday, "Geopolitical risk doesn't tend to linger long in markets, but there are many second-order impacts that could come through in the weeks, months, and years ahead from this weekend's developments." <Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid>.

 

What’s behind the numbers:

  • Cell and gene therapy sector equities wavered in early afternoon trading Wednesday closing negative as investors focused on comments from Fed Governor Waller and the latest inflation data,
  • Fed Governor Waller said “we’re in this position where we kind of watch and see what happens on rate
  • Too many geopolitical risks and start of earnings season has investors buying cautiously and selling into uncertainty,
  • The 10-year Treasury yield declined even after the hotter-than-expected inflation data, hitting its lowest level since Sept. 29. The 10-year recently lost more than 6 basis points to 4.59%. The 2-year yield, meanwhile, moved higher by less than 1 basis point to 4.993.
  • The consumer-price index data is set to be released Thursday and will provide more insight on the potential next steps for the Fed. Economists expect prices rose 0.3% in September,
  • Oil fell after an early-week surge.

 

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Focus should be on the upcoming quarterly earnings season!

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) -2x and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) 

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Prime Medicine (PRME) -2x
  • Tuesday: MiMedx (MDXG), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Blueprint Medine (BPMC)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and uniQure NV (QURE)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.