October 18, 2023 7:54am
Tuesday, Monday and Friday’s investors’ gold is a trader’s disposable tin. Set aside volatility and mixed economic data; there still aren't good reasons to be investing, companies are saving ANY news for the LPS <loss-per-share> “earnings season”
Pre-Open Indications: 5 Sell into Strength and 3 Negative Indications
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize
Instead of harping on NOT buying the right names at the right time or NOT waiting long enough to take profit, I suggest dropping the "shoulda, coulda, wouldas" and thinking about where your portfolio is most vulnerable!
The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.26% or (-90 points), the S&P is DOWN -0.43% or (-18 points) as the Nasdaq is DOWN -0.55% or (-84 points)
Stock futures dived on Wednesday,
European markets were lower,
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed in choppy afternoon trading
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes were mixed and the Nasdaq and S&P declined on Tuesday after the Dow closed UP +13.11 points or +0.04%, the S&P closed DOWN -0.43 points or -0.01% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -34.24 points or -0.25%.
Economic Data Docket: housing starts and building permits data for September.
Tuesday’s (10/17) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “a lot of background noise. For investors and traders to sift through as good news about the economy is once again bad news as the Fed straddles the fence on delivering more tightening while sector earnings season dates are about to be released and real sentiment is a glass half-full and still being sipped.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13167
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) has commenced a public offering of up to $300 M of stock … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13168
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13166
Ebb and flow:
Q4: October – 6 positive and 6 negative closes
Q3:
· September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday, Friday, last Monday and the previous Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$1.27 after Monday’s -$0.87, Friday’s +$2.83, Thursday’s -$2.53 and last Wednesday’s -$1.24, with a neutral or 0% pre-open indication
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$0.37 after Monday’s +$0.16 with a positive +$0.84 or +1.735 aftermarket indication
Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.70 after Monday’s +$0.46 with a positive +$0.10 or +1.30% aftermarket indication.
Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$0.26 after Monday’s +$0.16 with a neutral aftermarket indication
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$2.11 after Monday’s+$0.71 after Thursday’s -$2.68, Wednesday’s -$1.21, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$0.27 with a neutral $0.00 or 0% aftermarket indication.
Negative Indications:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday, Friday, last Monday and the previous Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$2.26 after Monday’s +$0.52 with a negative -$0.42 or -0.83% pre-open indication
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$0.19 after Monday’s +$0.93 with a negative -$1.86 or -5.05% on news of a $300 M stock offering and aftermarket indication
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.05 after Monday’s -$0.13 with a negative -$0.02 or -0.17 pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: … Ben Graham used to talk about the stock market being a cross between a voting machine and a weighing machine.
There is the voting machine of this sector. In the short run, values can be pretty senseless if one side or the other decides to be aggressive in their buying or selling.
- Tuesday, the Nasdaq ended lower while the Dow and S&P 500 were nearly flat as Treasury yields rose and shares of chipmakers fell after the Biden administration said it planned to halt shipments of advanced artificial intelligence chips to China.
- Investors should be cautious about new buys with the market rally struggling and earnings season picking up steam. Selling some recent buys may be warranted.
- The stock market rally started the week strong, extending gains from the Nasdaq's (Oct. 6) follow-through day, helped by tumbling Treasury yields.
- However, the major indexes stalled out amid whipsaw Treasury moves, while underlying market action was weaker.
- Preliminary October numbers from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading came in at 63.0 vs. estimates for 67.5 rattling indexes. The number was well below the 68.1 reading from the prior month and stood at its lowest level since May.
Today’s relevancy
- Trade the ups, building cash position; buying the lows so they can eventually be the overbought through unbridled speculation and then trade again.
What the sector patterns and markets are telling me:
- Market breadth has been weak
- Uncertainty
- A weak aftermarket
- Economic/inflation releases
- A sentiment factor driven by algorithms and electronic trading,
- Remember, the closer we get to earnings releases <LPS or loss per share sweepstakes> the leaner gains or expressive losses are going to be!
- The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.
Daily Economic Data Calendar …
- Wednesday Economic data: Building permits, September, month-over-month (-5.9%% expected, +6.9% previously); Housing starts, September, month-over-month (+8.5% expected, -11.3% previously); MBA mortgage applications, week ending Oct. 13 (+0.6%, previously)
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
