October 19, 2023 7:53am
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 198,000, fewer than expected, nnterest rates will be back in focus Thursday as traders look ahead to a key speech from Fed Chair Powell for clues at noon ET
Pre-Open Indications: 3 Positive and 1 Negative Indications
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize
Instead of harping on NOT buying the right names at the right time or NOT waiting long enough to take profit, I suggest dropping the "shoulda, coulda, wouldas" and thinking about where your portfolio is most vulnerable!
The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.03% or (+10 points), the S&P is UP +0.06% or (+2 points) as the Nasdaq is UP +0.10% or (+15 points)
Futures are up, mixed and basically flat on Thursday,
European markets were lower,
Asia-Pacific markets saw a wide sell off, with South Korea, Hong Kong, and mainland Chinese markets seeing losses of about 2% each.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell on Wednesday as the Dow closed DOWN -332.57 points or -0.98%, the S&P closed DOWN -58.60 points or -1.34% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -219.45 points or -1.62%.
Economic Data Docket: weekly jobless claims and existing home sales for September.
- Interest rates will be back in focus today as traders look ahead to a key speech at noon ET from Fed Chair Powell. Even as inflation numbers have been showing signs of improvement, Treasury yields’ continued climb is raising questions on how the central bank may proceed on monetary policy.<CNBC>
Wednesday’s (10/18) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “staring into the abyss after scrambling into safety. Geopolitical issues and uncertainty create a flight to safety for cell/gene therapy sector equities as Q4 could be choppy.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13170
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) has priced its public offering at $30.00 per share of 8,33 M stock … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13168
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13166
Ebb and flow:
Q4: October – 6 positive and 7 negative closes
Q3:
· September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Positive indications;
Wednesday’s closing price, some Tuesday, Monday, Friday, last Monday and the previous Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$2.53 after Tuesday’s +$0.37 and Monday’s +$0.16 with a positive +$1.21 or +2.63 aftermarket indication
Prime Medicine (PRME) closed down -$0.87 after Tuesday’s +$0.70 and Monday’s +$0.46 with a positive +$0.10 or +1.33% pre-open indication.
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.58 after Tuesday’s -$0.05 and Monday’s -$0.13 with a positive +$0.22 or +2.01 aftermarket indication.
Negative Indication:
Wednesday’s closing price, some Tuesday, Monday, Friday, last Monday and the previous Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$0.90 after Tuesday’s -$1.27, Monday’s -$0.87, Friday’s +$2.83 and last Thursday’s -$2.53 with a negative -$0.18 or -0.11% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: … “During Wednesday’s regular trading, stocks sold off sharply as Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs. The yield on the 10-year Treasury topped 4.9%, touching its highest level in 16 years. In turn, the S&P 500 tumbled 1.3%, while the 30-stock Dow shed more than 330 points, or 0.98%. The Nasdaq was the notable loser, off 1.6%.
Ben Graham used to talk about the stock market being a cross between a voting machine and a weighing machine.
There is the voting machine of this sector. In the short run, values can be pretty senseless if one side or the other decides to be aggressive in their buying or selling.
Investors should be cautious about new buys with the market rally struggling and earnings season picking up steam. Selling some recent buys may be warranted.
An appropriate quote, “We're in a period of sector rotation, and people are trying to figure out in this new environment - in a full reset of rates across the curve - what are the stocks that are going to continue to do well and what are the stocks that are going to suffer." <Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey>
Today’s relevancy
- Trade the ups, building cash position; buying the lows so they can eventually be the overbought through unbridled speculation and then trade again.
- Mounting tensions in the Middle East stoked risk aversion. Safe-haven gold hit its highest level in more than two months. The Cboe Volatility index, Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped.
What the sector patterns and markets are telling me:
- Market breadth has been weak
- Uncertainty
- A weak aftermarket
- Economic/inflation releases
- A sentiment factor driven by algorithms and electronic trading,
- Remember, the closer we get to earnings releases <LPS or loss per share sweepstakes> the leaner gains or expressive losses are going to be!
- The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.
Weekly Economic Data Calendar …Thursday:
- Initial jobless claims, week ending Oct. 14 (209,000 previously);
- Philly Fed Business outlook, October (-6.4 expected, -13.5 previously);
- Existing home sales, September, month-over-month (-3.5% expected, -0.7% previously);
- Leading index of economic indicators, September (-0.4% expected, -0.4% previously)
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
