December 4, 2023 5:22pm

Time to boogey, when portfolio rides start and stop while seeing some 52-week highs and dramatic upsides without catalysts

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Medicine (OTCQB: HRGN), The Bottom Line: Even lipstick will NOT help this pig, even with a press release, questionable - FDA will not allow another trial until the current is completed in 3-5 years!!

Pre-open Indications: 5 Hits and 2 Miss

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After careful examination of the sector and breathe trends, I STILL come away more cautious. Having lived through the rise and multiple declines of “our” universe’s stock price.

We're in a period of sector rotation, and people are trying to figure out what cell and gene therapy sector equities at are going to continue to do well and what are the stocks that are going to suffer.

Investors must be better informed on what fluctuating economics and markets can do to an equity, or what impact indications or expectations can have.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -41.06 points or -0.11%, the S&P closed DOWN -24.85 points or -0.54% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -119.54 points or -0.84%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes slipped on Monday as investors questioned whether the market was getting ahead of itself and if there is a chance that Fed Chair Powell will raise rates.

Economic Data Docket: Factory orders declined slightly more than expected in October, a sign of potential deceleration for the U.S. economy heading into the end of the year. New orders for manufactured goods fell 3.6% on the month, 0.1 percentage point more than the Dow Jones estimate and a reversal from the downwardly revised 2.3% increase in September, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Excluding transportation, orders were off 1.2% and fell 4.2% excluding defense. Orders for longer-lasting durable goods slid 5.4%.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Monday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 25 incliners, 6 decliners and 4 flats, flopped negative with 22 decliners/12 incliners and 1 flat springing positive at the mid-day with 25 declined, 8 incliners and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat
  • Friday’s advance/decline line was negative with 10 incliners, 21 decliners and 4 flats at the open, the mid-day flipped positive with 25 inclined, 7 decliners and 3 flats, ending with a positive close of 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats

 

Pre-op0en Indications: 5 Hits < Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.09), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.23), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.36), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.70), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.01)> and 2 Miss < Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.09), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.09)>

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  December - 2 positive closes

  • November – 11 positive, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.69% and the XBI was up +1.75%
  • Friday, the IBB was up +1.38% and the XBI was up +3.06%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.45 point or +3.56% at 13.08
  • Friday was down -0.29 point or -2.24% at 12.63

 

Monday’s Closing Down (8 of 8):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.17 after Friday’s +$2.16),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.17),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.11),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.10),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN -$0.07 after Friday’s $0.00)
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.04),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.03),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.01 after Friday’s +$1.49

Flat (1)

  • Mesoblast (MESO)

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 26):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.86 after Friday’s +$1.92
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.36 after Friday’s +$3.16),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.09 after Friday’s +$1.31),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.70 after Friday’s +$2.41)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.62 after Friday’s +$0.88),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.45 after Friday’s +$0.81),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDM +$0.52),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.41),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.34),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.28),

 

Q4/23 – December

  • Friday closed positive with 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • Friday closed positive with 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I am staying with: “As November ended <and December began>, investors should punch out some upside sector equities and buy up some bottom liners.

  • Reiterating, “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”
  • What did I write this a.m.: what are we riding the merry-go-round or the roller coaster
  • What has changed, just those who are up and down swapping roles …
  • I STILL believe some cell and gene therapy sector upsiders are … overbought.
  • I also DON’T believe totally in the THIS market -- it’s usually a signal to lighten the load of the sector’s upside movers.
  • Being that I have concerns over the upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.
  • It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

What’s behind the numbers:

  • Investors will be watching labor data out this week, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey published on Tuesday and payroll data released on Friday.
  • U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield moving off three-month lows to stand 7 basis points higher at 4.29%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3 basis points to 4.47%.

It's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - 5x and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 4x, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) -3x and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) -2x

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Monday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
  • Friday: Caribou Biosciences (CRBU), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and Graphite Bio (GRPH)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.