January 4, 2024 4:47pm

As uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs came to visit as share pricing tourists

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With a sigh of relief, I try to answer or qualify one question, in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money

Ask yourself, do you know why you own certain equities?

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +10.15 points or +0.03%, the S&P closed DOWN -16.13 points or -0.34% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -81.91 points or -0.56%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed mixed as investors flee except in the cell and gene therapy sector.

Economic Data Docket: Hiring in the private sector rose at a faster-than-expected pace in December, closing out a strong 2023 for the resilient U.S. jobs market, ADP reported.

  • Private payrolls increased by 164,000 for the month, a substantial rise from the downwardly revised 101,000 in November and better than the 130,000 estimate.
  • In another sign of strength, initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 30 totaled 202,000, a drop of 18,000 from the previous period and below the estimate for 219,000.
  • Continuing claims, which run a week behind, fell to 1.855 million, a drop of 31,000.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences 

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 21 incliners, 11 decliners and 3 flats, ending with a positive close of 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: 1 holiday, 1 negative and 2 positive closes

Q4: 

  • 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.44% and the XBI was up +1.42%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.05 point or +0.36% at 14.09

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (12 of 12):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$3.53 after Wednesday’s -$2.33 after Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.88),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.62 after Wednesday’s -$3.50, Tuesday’s +$3.46 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.54 after Wednesday’s -$0.81 after Tuesday’s +$0.81 and Monday's holiday),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN -$0.25 after Wednesday’s +$0.24, Tuesday’s -$0.48 and Monday’s holiday)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.25),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS -$0.11),
  • Graphite Bio (RRPH -$0.05 after Wednesday’s +$0.02),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0402),
  • Caribou Bioscience (CRBU -$0.04),
  • BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0040),

Flat (1):

  • Mesoblast (MESO)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 22):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.67 after Wednesday’s -$4.29 after Tuesday’s +$3.52 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.61 after Wednesday’s -$1.00)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.35),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.30),
  • Prime Medine (PRME +$0.14 after Wednesday’s +$0.11, Tuesday’s -$0.10 and Monday’s holiday)
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.13 after Wednesday’s -$1.01 after Tuesday’s -$1.33 and Monday's holiday),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.12),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.11),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.10 after Wednesday’s -$1.04  and Monday’s holiday),

 

Q1/24 – January

  • Thursday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat
  • (1/2) Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: what has changed …

As I had written, “12/29/23 ended with my message of: “Looking toward 2024 with one word – recalibration i.e., a change in the way you do or think about something – markets and the cell and gene therapy sector.”

  • We are back on the merry-go-round or did we ever get off as the music swayed.

Reiterating, “There could be some wobbles in early January, as volume returns and some tax selling takes place. So, investors may want to see how that shakes out. But they should be looking for new buying opportunities, and reviewing past trades.”

  • “News, financings, Q4 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) and “runways” will be the under-current or headwind for January through March 2024. Pricing for gene therapies will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!” <me>

The upside jumped from +0.30% to +9%and the downside -0.44% to -7.85%

 

A Grab Bag of Activity:

  • From Barron’s, “Biotech has had a tough year. But biotech mergers and acquisitions haven’t—and biotech stocks are benefiting from them. The equal-weighted SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund has gained 7.6% this year, while the market cap–weighted iShares Biotechnology ETF has risen 3.8%. Both trail the S&P 500 index’s 24% rise but look much better now than at the end of October, when the iShares ETF was off 13%, and the SPDR Biotech was down 20%.”

From Wall Street Journal (WSJ): bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.08) is showing Wall Street it’s ready to compete for sickle-cell patients.

  • BLUE (+$0.17 or +7.66% to $1.475) said it secured its second outcomes-based agreement with a large national payer for its sickle-cell gene therapy Lyfgenia. Under this agreement, Bluebird would reimburse a portion of the cost to health insurers if the treatment stops working as intended three years after patients receive it. The health-insurer contract provides a roadmap for how Bluebird aims to gain sales even though it charges more than a rival for sickle-cell treatment.

From Zachs Equity research:

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE -$0.86 or -1.79% to $47.09) completed enrollment in the new expansion cohorts in its early to mid-stage study of GTX-102 for the treatment of pediatric patients with Angelman syndrome (AS).
  • GTX-102 is Ultragenyx’s investigational antisense oligonucleotide, which is designed to target and inhibit the expression of UBE3A antisense transcript.
  • RARE reported that it has enrolled 53 patients in the dose-expansion cohorts (Cohorts A-E) for a total of 74 patients enrolled globally in the phase I/II AS study. Having completed enrollment, RARE claims to remain on track to report results from the phase I/II study of GTX-102 for AS in the first half of 2024 from at least 20 expansion cohort patients on therapy for at least six months.
  •  Management expects the cumulative safety and efficacy data from new expansion cohorts to verify the GTX-102 dose range, treatment regimen and endpoint selection, supporting the initiation of the company’s phase III program for AS.

Thursday’s backdrop:

  • The Nasdaq chalked up its third straight loss, extending its bleak start to the year, as tech-focused investors continued to take profits after a blistering rally in the final weeks of last year. <Reuters>
  • US private payrolls increase in December - ADP

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) -2x, Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Wednesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday; Holiday

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 3x, Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – 2x
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 2x and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Tuesday: MiMedx (MDXG), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: holiday

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.