January 5, 2024 5:05pm

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Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 1 Miss

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The 1st Week of 2024 in Review

With no sigh of relief, I try to answer or qualify one question, in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money

Ask yourself, do you know why you own certain equities?

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +25.77 points or +0.07%, the S&P closed UP +8.56 points or +0.18% while the Nasdaq closed UP +13.77 points or +0.09%

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +10.15 points or +0.03%, the S&P closed DOWN -16.13 points or -0.34% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -81.91 points or -0.56%

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -284.85 points or -0.76%, the S&P closed DOWN -38.02 points or -0.80% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -173.73 points or -1.18%

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +25.50 points or +0.07%, the S&P closed DOWN -27 points or -0.57% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -245.41 points or -1.63%

Monday was New Years Day

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed barely up as traders assessed incoming economic data to determine if and when the Fed will start cutting interest rates.

  • “Coming into today, investors wanted three things: fading inflation, a stable job market and rate cuts. However, I think coming out of today’s jobs number suggests to me that there’s some give and take here, and investors might only be getting one out of the three items on their wish list.” <Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, told CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: December’s jobs report showed employers added 216,000 jobs for the month while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%. That compared with respective estimates of 170,000 and 3.8%.

  • The hiring boost came from a gain of 52,000 in government jobs and another 38,000 in health care-related fields such as ambulatory health-care services and hospitals.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and were up 4.1% from a year ago, both higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.9%.
  • The labor force participation rate, or the share of the civilian working-age population either employed or looking for a job, slid to 62.5%, down 0.3 percentage point to its lowest since February and down 676,000 on a monthly basis.
  • The report, along with revisions to previous months’ counts, brought 2023 job gains to 2.7 million, or a monthly average of 225,000, down from 4.8 million, or 399,000 a month, in 2022.

A weak report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that showed service sector employment plunged to 43.3 in December to the lowest level since July 2020 led the rate cut outlook to rise a bit. The index was at 50.7 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below that number shows contraction.

 

Pre-Open: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: expectation versus actual … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13273

 

Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hits < AxoGen (AXGN +$1.80), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.93)> 1 Miss < Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.26)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 12 incliners, 23 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 21 incliners, 11 decliners and 3 flats, ending with a positive close of 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 25 incliners, 9 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 27 incliners, 6 decliners and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday was a holiday

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: 1 holiday, 2 negative and 2 positive closes

Q4: 

  • 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.29% and the XBI was down -0.18%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.44% and the XBI was up +1.42%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.56% and the XBI was down -2.25%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.63% and the XBI was up +1.03%
  • Monday was holiday

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.67 point or -4.74% at 13.46
  • Thursday was up +0.05 point or +0.36% at 14.09
  • Wednesday was up +0.84 point or +5.36% at 14.04
  • Tuesday was up +0.83 point or +6.67% at 13.28
  • Monday was Christmas

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 23):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.93 after Thursday’s +$1.67 after Wednesday’s -$4.29 after Tuesday’s +$3.52 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.24 after Thursday’s -$3.53, Wednesday’s -$2.33, Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$1.99),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.48 after Thursday’s +$0.13, Wednesday’s -$1.01, Tuesday’s -$1.33 and Tuesday’s -$0.73 and Monday's holiday),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.27 after Thursday’s -$0.62, Wednesday’s -$3.50, Tuesday’s +$3.46 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.95 after Thursday’s +$0.10, Wednesday’s -$1.04, Tuesday’s XXX and Monday’s holiday),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.89),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS -$0.78 after Thursday’s +$0.11),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.45),
  • Caribou Bioscience (CRBU -$0.34 after Thursday’s  -$0.04),

Friday’s Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • AxoGen (AXGN +$1.80 after Thursday’s +$0.12),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.51 after Thursday’s -$0.88),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.34 after Thursday’s -$0.54, Wednesday’s -$0.81 after Tuesday’s +$0.81),
  • Graphite Bio (RRPH +$0.15 after Thursday’s -$0.05 after Wednesday’s +$0.02),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.08),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.05),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.04),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.04),
  • Solid BioSciences (SLDB +$0.02),
  • Mesoblast (+$0.01),
  • BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.0040),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.0019)

 

Q1/24 – January

  • Friday closed negative with 12 incliners, 23 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat
  • (1/2) Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Finally, have tested negative 2x for the “vid” while the “babe” is still positive since before Christmas – truly retarded our social calendar

  • What has changed … other than the weather, economic “data” did liquify the sector as I had predicted while the roller-coaster of share pricing in the first short week of 2024 roiled to a close.

As I had written, “12/29/23 ended with my message of: “Looking toward 2024 with one word – recalibration i.e., a change in the way you do or think about something – markets and the cell and gene therapy sector.”

  • We are back on the merry-go-round or did we ever get off as the music swayed.
  • Reiterating, “There could be some wobbles in early January, as volume returns and some tax selling takes place. So, investors may want to see how that shakes out. But they should be looking for new buying opportunities, and reviewing past trades.”

 

“News, financings, Q4 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) and “runways” will be the under-current or headwind for January through March 2024. Pricing for gene therapies will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!” <me>

 

The daily upside (12) jumped Friday from +0.24% to +26.67% and down slide of (23) -18.36% to -0.16% after Thursday’s (22) +0.30% to +9% and the (12)downside -0.44% to -7.85%

 

Friday’s backdrop:

  • Bond prices and a gauge of global equity performance eased in choppy trading on Friday after a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report increased the odds that the Federal Reserve can engineer a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy.
  • The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 5.3 basis points to 4.044%. On the week, the 10-year's yield rose 13.1 basis points, the largest weekly gain since mid-October.
  • The jobless rate held steady at 3.7%, down from most forecasters' expectations for it to rise, prompting concerns that the Fed's long battle to tame inflation may have further to run.

 

Just waiting for the next staunch of desperately needed funding:  

  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN closed down -$0.0875 to $4.41 (2010 share traded) after Thursday’s -$0.25 (1000 shares traded), Wednesday’s +$0.24 (1900 shares traded) , Tuesday’s -$0.48 (2000 shares traded) and Monday’s holiday).
  • It doesn’t/won’t look good for new private placement due asap …
  • The problem, they are still dependent on their in-house funding/share purchase i.e. pimp the share price, pump the volume from DST Capital run by its President Hong Yu.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: AxoGen (AXGN), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Sage Therapeutics (SGMO)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) -2x, Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Wednesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday; Holiday

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 4x and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 3x, Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – 2x
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 2x and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Tuesday: MiMedx (MDXG), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: holiday

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.