January 24, 2024 4:51pm
There are two or more explanations for the sector’s rise and fall, the simplest explanation is the one most likely to be true – the downside
The sector dived in assumptions that sector conditions were stretched
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With NO slight sigh of relief, I answer or qualify the sector’s equity’s thrown dice; with an emphasis on which company is losing stride in their portfolio for the short-term
Join me … in the NO spin zone. If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing.
Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -99.06 points or -0.26%, the S&P closed UP +3.95 points +0.08% while the Nasdaq closed UP +55.97 points or +0.36%
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes closed mixed on Wednesday as earnings roll-in.
Economic Data Docket: January’s preliminary consumer sentiment data showed a slight increase in confidence about the economy.
Wednesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a number of upsiders are stretched as some recent buys have pulled back while earnings season is ramping up to full force is another reason to be cautious. A Very weak aftermarket.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13297
Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:
- Wednesday’s advance/line lines at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 20 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 4 incliners, 31 decliners and 0 flat
52-week low:
- bluebird bio (BLUE) at $1.07
Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:
Q1/24: 2 holiday, 9 negative and 6 positive closes
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.14% and the XBI was down 1.68%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was up +0.52 point or +4.14% at 13.07
Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 31):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.50)
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.38
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.43 after after Monday’s +$2.36 and Friday's +$0.51
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.22),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.21),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.87 ),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.58),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.71 ),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.32),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.30),
Tuesday’s Closing Up (4 of 4):
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.34),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.04),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.0050),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0033)
Q1/24 – January
- Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliners, 31 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: Yet again, it’s NOT tough be right so many times
As I had written this a.m., a number of upsiders are stretched as some recent buys have pulled back while earnings season is ramping up to full force is another reason to be cautious and a very weak aftermarket
… “if one watches the flow, the numbers and understanding the old Abbot & Costello monologue: Who’s on first, what’s on second and I don’t know who is on third – that’s what I want to find out!”
Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector has “recalibrated” its expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.”
- Earnings and guidance are DUE and going to be crucial to continue driving force in the sector.
Today’s business news: Reuter’s
- The Nasdaq touched its highest since January 2022 and is now around 4% below its record high close in November 2021.
- On the data front, a survey showed business activity picked up in January and inflation appeared to abate, suggesting that the economy kicked off 2024 on a strong note.
- A resilient U.S. economy and uncertainty over the timing of interest rate cuts have led investors to reassess their bets on how quickly the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year.
- Traders now see an 85.5% chance of a rate cut in May, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Wednesday: AxoGen (AXGN), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
- Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) -2x and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
- Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL) and Blueprint medicine (BLMC)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Blueprint Medicine (BOMC)
- Tuesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Vericel (VCEL)
- Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Mesoblast (MESO)
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
