February 8, 2024 4:45pm

Good headlines generates bad jibes; but, does move the upside…

Pre-open indication: 3 Hits and 3 Miss

News: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.84) announced preliminary safety and efficacy data from the ongoing LUNA P2 trial in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Over 90% of subjects having no or minimal inflammation with local prophylactic regimen.

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A slight sigh of relief, I qualify the sector’s equity’s movement; with an emphasis on which company is gaining or losing stride in “our” portfolio in the short-term

It’s not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and NOT being indentured to ANY financial institution!

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +48.97 points or +0.13%, the S&P closed UP +2.85 points +0.06% while the Nasdaq closed UP +37.07 points or +0.24%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose on Thursday during Thursday trading as jobless claims fall more than expected last week

Economic Data Docket: Initial filings for unemployment insurance were lower last week as employers remain reluctant to let go of their workers. Weekly jobless claims totaled 218,000 for the week ended Feb. 3, down 9,000 from the week before and just below the estimate for 220,000. <Labor Department>

  • Continuing claims, which run a week behind, decreased to 1.87 million, down 23,000 and slightly below the FactSet estimate for 1.88 million.

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “patience. Some cell and gene therapy sector “participants” are flashing buy signals; however, earnings’ season (LPS (loss-per-share) “decline” times are coming soon!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13320

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hit < Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.84), Vericel (VCEL +$1.62), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +0.74)> 3 Miss <Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.72), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.44), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.55)>

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Thursday’s advance/line lines at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 19 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: February, 3 negative and 3 positive closes

  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.40% and the XBI was up +1.27%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.03 point or -0.23% at 12.80

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (7 of 7):

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.84 after Wednesday’s +$0.31 after Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s +$0.49)
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.35),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.13 after Wednesday’s -$0.81),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.04 after Wednesday’s -$2.97),
  • Harvard Apparatus RN (HRGN -$0.016),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.01)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0053 after Wednesday’s +$0.0031),

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 28):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.11 after Wednesday’s -$1.16, Tuesday’s +$2.37 and Monday’s -$0.24
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.72 after Wednesday’s +$1.52, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.08)
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.62 after Wednesday’s +$0.07, Tuesday’s +$0.94 and Monday’s +$0.33)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.40 after Wednesday’s -$0.50, Tuesday’s +$1.73 and Monday’s -$0.45),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.90 after Wednesday’s -$3.58, Tuesday’s +$1.48 and Monday’s -$2.36),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.51, Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$0.20
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.74 after Wednesday’s -$1.18, Tuesday’s +$1.13 and Monday’s +$1.74)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.60),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.55),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.54 after Wednesday’s -$0.31, Tuesday’s +$1.95 and Monday’s +$0.01

 

Q1/24 – February

  • Thursday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: What more can I write; I have said it all – read the weeklies and know I have been RIGHT!

  • Yields rose Thursday with the 10-year Treasury note last at 4.16%.

Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.”

  • Earnings and guidance are beginning 2/15 as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) along with Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on 2/14 and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) on 2/15 announcing Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

 

A quote to ponder, "It (jobless claims data) is another data point that the economy remains resilient and that the potential for a soft landing or economic re-acceleration can still happen," said Dylan Kremer, chief investment officer at Certuity.

  • Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said recent stronger-than-expected data on the U.S. economy may be partly due to the difficulty of making accurate seasonal adjustments around the beginning of a new year.

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: WHY do I keep analyzing Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN) formerly, Biostage (BSTG):

  • I WAS there to experience the lack of corporate and investor prerogatives, saw the decay of transparency and more; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
  • Have you notice how it barely trades unless volume is “pumped”; is it by DST Capital, run by the president of HRGN, Hong Yu and Mrs. Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass – funded by Lui Dong Hai, chairman of Dixintong Technology Group (D. Phone, the largest smartphone retailer in China) the husband of Mrs. bin Zhao?
  • Still labeled a … Going Concern… flailing for the lack of U.S. investors and a VERY short “runway” until Q4/2023’s end … and the back story to Netflix: “Bad Surgeon, Love under the Knife”.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Vericel (VCEL)  
  • Wednesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Thursday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), uniQure NV (QURE) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.