July 8, 2024 7:39am
The cell and gene therapy sector will be showing cracks until Q2 earnings are released
There will be up sessions coming due to being oversold yet, buy-ins will be readying for sell-outs
Pre-open Indications: 1 Positive, 1 Negative and 3 Sell into Strength indications
A daily analytic read-out from RMi is constructed of specific warnings challenging share pricing situations
Never leave an investor uninformed
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.20% or (+78 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.08% or (+ 4.75 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.04% or (+7.50 points)
- Stock futures were mixed, now up and still fluctuating as investors await inflation data,
- Europe markets rose,
- Asia Pacific markets mostly slipped as Japan real wages fall for 26th straight month, while China stocks drop for 5th session.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Friday: The Dow closed UP +67.87 points or +0.17%, the S&P closed UP +30.17 points or +0.54% while the Nasdaq closed UP +164.46 points or +0.90%
- Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a neutral close of 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats
Last week, labor data reflected a slightly cooling labor market, spurring expectations of a rate cut. But although the U.S. economy added more jobs in June than anticipated, there was also an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.1% from 4%. Traders are currently expecting two interest rate cuts in 2024, with the first in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: Fed chief Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. The June CPI inflation report is due on Thursday, following the soft jobs report on June 5. PPI inflation data is on Friday.
RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “Intro to July and Q3 with a mid-week holiday built-in. Stand with the cell and gene therapy sector and new high markets, while enjoying the mid-week holiday continuance; the real news issue is whether president Biden will continue his quest to have a 2nd term after disastrous debate and mental health issues. For the record, NO AI here – HUMINT and SIGMIT only!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13522
52-week low:
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) at $1.51
Q3/24:
- July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 2 negative and 1 neutral (Friday) closes
Q2/24:
- June – 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 1 negative closes
- May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes
- April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Insight is about understanding perception
Sell into Strength:
Friday, Thursday was a holiday, Wednesday was a day off, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$2.67 after Tuesday’s +$1.18 after Monday’s +$1.40 with a neutral pre-open
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$2.38 after Tuesday’s +$4.29 after Monday’s +$0.32 with a positive +$0.13 or +0.05% pre-open
Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed down Friday -$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.60 after SLDB joined the Russell 3000® Index as of 7/1 with a positive +$0.01 pre-open
Positive Indications:
Friday, Thursday was a holiday, Wednesday was a day off, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down-$0.40 after Tuesday’s -$0.48 after Monday’s -$0.37 with a positive +$0.47 or +2.04% pre-open
Negative Indications:
Friday, Thursday was a holiday, Wednesday was a day off, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Agenus (AGEN) closed up +$0.60 after Tuesday’s -$2.41 after Monday’s -$0.06 with a negative -$0.04 or -0.26% pre-open
The BOTTOM LINE: Last week saw the Nasdaq hit fresh highs, increasingly extended. On the flip side, the cell and gene therapy sector closed neutral…
- As the small-cap Russell 2000 sank 1%, sinking below the 50-day line.
- The combination of the Nasdaq being extended while small caps, midcaps and the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF are losing sight of their 50-day lines isn't ideal. <IBD>
I believe contributing to concerns in the market turbulence is “President Biden's ABC News interview, which aired Friday evening, came with his re-election effort reeling following his disastrous June 27 debate with Donald Trump. Biden said the debate was a "bad episode" but there is "no indication of any serious condition." The general consensus was that the president did better than in the debate, but didn't ally concerns either. Biden insisted he will not drop out. But as of Saturday, Vice President Harris had a 46% chance of being the Democratic nominee, versus 39% for Biden.” <IBD>
Last week:
- Friday ended with a neutral close of 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats
- Thursday was a market holiday
- Wednesday was a day off
- Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
- (7/1) Monday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
Last week’s metrics:
- Friday: the IBB was down -0.68% and the XBI was down -0.54%
- Tuesday: the IBB was down -0.69% and the XBI was down -1.81%
- Monday: the IBB was down -0.21% and the XBI was up +0.36%
Oversold as sentiment and breadth is in the toilet and due are Q2 LPS (loss per-share) boding releases.
- I’m still NOT feeling optimism --- it’s only a party for visits from “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs”!
In July, wait until you see the green of the upside is a bit like the “famous order "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes" which was popularized in stories about the battle of Bunker Hill.
Interesting stat:
- Since 1928, July has emerged as the best month of the year, on average, in terms of stock-market performance.
- My issue the Q2 is over, and many sector companies (of my covered group) are preparing the release Q2 earnings and 1st H LPS (loss-per-share) “numbers”
- July begins what is usually the Nasdaq’s worst four months of the year (especially in an election year) and has averaged a monthly gain on that index of less than 1% since 1971. Over that time frame, July has been the sixth best performing Nasdaq month, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Reiterating, “There is still the issue of the lack of catalysts as we head into Q2 earnings season.”
Watch the “numbers” measure the daily, weekly, and monthly charts can filter out or lessen the noise of back-and-forth share pricing from sector rotation.
- The short-term moving averages help you identify the momentum of the trend — that is, overbought or oversold
“Stuff” happens:
With job growth slowing, investors will be closely watching the release of June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday as the case builds that the Federal Reserve could be set to cut interest rates in September. Semiannual testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday will also be a key focus for investors. <Yahoo Finance>
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
