July 10, 2024 4:49pm

The cell and gene therapy sector “popped” again; however, are we ignoring or dismissing the downside risks in these parabolic indexes moves alongside uncertain economic, political and earnings season times?

Newest record closing highs for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, respond with nervousness and caution

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +429.39 points or +1.09%, the S&P closed UP +56.93 points or +1.02% while the Nasdaq closed UP +218.16 points or +1.18%

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliner, 12 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats

  • the IBB was up +1.20% and the XBI was up +1.18%
  • the VIX was up +0.35 point or +2.80% at 12.86

Economic Data Docket: Economists expect a 0.1% month-over-month advance and a 3.1% year-on-year gain. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, is forecast to have expanded 0.2% month over month and 3.4% year on year.

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -52.82 points or -0.13%, the S&P closed UP +4.13 points or +0.07% while the Nasdaq closed UP +25.55 points or +0.14%

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 10 incliner,21 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 19 incliners, 12 decliners and 4 flats

  • the IBB was up +0.82% and the XBI was up +1.22%
  • the VIX was up +0.13 point or +1.05% at 12.50

Economic Data Docket: Fed chair Powell said in prepared remarks that keeping interest rates elevated for too long could risk further economic growth, seemingly hinting that the central bank is considering taking a less restrictive stance.

 

Monday:

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -31.08 points or -0.08%, the S&P closed UP +5.66 points or +0.10% while the Nasdaq closed UP +50.98 points or +0.28%

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 26 incliner, 6 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was up +1.12% and the XBI was up +1.66%
  • the VIX was down -0.11 point or -0.88% at 12.37

Economic Data Docket: June consumer price index (CPI) will be released Thursday, and producer price index (PPI) data will be released Friday.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes moved upward as investors await fresh inflation figures on Thursday with the release of the June consumer price index report.

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 2 negative, 1 neutral (last Friday) and 3 positive closes

Q2/24 -June: 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 12 negative closes

  • May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 12 negative closes
  • April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 10):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.60 after Tuesday’s  -$0.89),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.44 after Tuesday’s  +$0.53),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.28),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.23 after Tuesday’s +$0.61 after Monday’s +$0.42),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.21 after Tuesday’s $0.00 after Monday’s $0.00),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.16 after Tuesday’s -$0.14 after Monday’s -$0.01),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.07 after Tuesday’s +$0.13),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.05),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.01),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.01 after Tuesday’s $0.00)

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) – under $1.00

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 23):

  • uniQure NV (QURE +$3.45 after Tuesday’s +$2.89 after Monday’s -$0.06),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.37 after Monday’s +$4.080,
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.89 after Tuesday’s -$0.68),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.81 after Tuesday’s -$0.20 after Monday’s +$1.15),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.70 after Tuesday’s -$1.07 after Monday’s +$4.62),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.53 after Tuesday’s +$1.80),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.35 after Tuesday’s -$0.09 after Monday’s +$0.88),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.31 after Tuesday’s +$0.29),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.76 after Monday’s +$0.61),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.17),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: A good start into the 2nd week of July with 3 positive closes which may NOT ensure a gain for the rest of week and month.

  • The cell and gene therapy sector looks a new kind of frothy, but there’s no indication yet that sector earnings can’t support these valuations; When, there’s slippage it’s going to have an amplified effect.

Breadth is weak in the market, even as the S&P 500 rises to all-time highs. < Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute>

 

The June consumer price index report is slated for release Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 0.1% month-over-month advance and a 3.1% year-on-year gain. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, is forecast to have expanded by 0.2% month over month and 3.4% year on year. <CNBC>

 

Q3 and July to date:

  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 19 incliners, 12 decliners and 4 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a neutral close of 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday was a market holiday
  • Wednesday was a day off
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • (7/1) Monday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats

 

So, I am still NOT bullish because the cell and gene therapy sector always … kind of moves along however (versus but), there is evidence of a slowdown coming and it's going to become, I think, even more thin as we go forward.

 

“Stuff” happens:

  • The Dow had been flirting with break-even territory throughout the morning.
  • While, Fed Chair Powell is on his 2nd day of testimonies before the Senate, speaking on how the Fed is still taking in economic data in order to make an informed decision around potential interest rate cuts.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Wednesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY) and Ionis pharmaceuticals (IONS)

The worst three (3) in the session:   

  • Wednesday: Vericel VCEL), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Agenus (AGEN)
  • Tuesday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel VCEL)
  • Monday: Regenxbio (RGNX), uniQure NV (QURE) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.