July 15, 2024 4:36pm

As many of Friday’s upside few get clipped and some flip

US markets have been particularly volatile in the wake of the attempt on former President Trump's life

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +210.88 points or +0.53%, the S&P closed UP +15.87 points or +0.28% while the Nasdaq closed UP +74.12 points or +0.40%

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was neutral with 16 incliner, 16 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 20 incliners, 9 decliners and 6 flats

  • the IBB was up +0.08% and the XBI was up +0.95%
  • the VIX was up +0.67 point or +5.38% at 13.13

Economic Data Docket: comments from Fed Chair Powell said the central bank wouldn’t wait until inflation was at its goal of 2% before lowering interest rates. He also said a hard landing scenario is unlikely for the economy. <CNBC>

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +247.15 points or +0.62%, the S&P closed UP +30.81 points or +0.55% while the Nasdaq closed UP +115.04 points or +0.63%

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliner, 4 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats

  • the IBB was up +0.82% and the XBI was up +1.02%
  • the VIX was down -0.46 point or -3.56% at 12.46

Economic Data Docket: The reading of inflation came in slightly hotter than expected yet, indexes largely ignored those figures after Thursday’s more important consumer prices report showed slowing inflation.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes advanced on Monday as investors bet the unsuccessful assassination attempt on former President Trump will lead to big gains for the Republican presidential candidate and the GOP at the polls in November.

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 2 negative, 1 neutral and 6 positive closes 

Q2/24 -June: 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 12 negative closes

  • May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 12 negative closes
  • April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Monday’s Closing Down (9 of 9):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.33 after Friday’s -$0.51),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.28 after Friday’s +$1.00 as CFO departs to old employer, JP Morgan),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.68 after Friday’s +$1.25),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.44 after Friday’s +$1.09),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.43 after Friday’s +$0.69),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.40 after Friday’s +$0.59),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.07),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0248),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0030),

Flat (6):

  • Agenus (AGEN)
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) – under $1.00
  • MiMedx (MDXG)

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 20):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.75 after Friday’s -$0.01),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.35 after Friday’s -$0.91),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.76),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.68 after Friday’s +1.42),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.65 after Friday’s -$0.28),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.65 after Friday’s -$0.07),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.43 after Friday’s +$0.36),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.40),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.39 after Friday’s -$0.19),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.28 after Friday’s +$0.21),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: in a review of the close, the flats made the difference

The assassination attempt against former President Trump has raised many questions over the impacts it may have on the election as well as markets.

Sector optimism flooded Monday with a positive close after last week closed with 5 positive closes.

 

 I still believe that moneys coming off the table

  • The cell and gene therapy sector STILL looks frothy, but there’s no indication yet that sector earnings can’t support these valuations.
  •  When, there’s slippage it’s going to have an amplified effect.

 

Q3 and July to date:

  • Monday ended with a positive close of 20 incliners, 9 decliners and 6 flats
  • Friday ended with a positive close of 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 19 incliners, 12 decliners and 4 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a neutral close of 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday was a market holiday
  • Wednesday was a day off
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • (7/1) Monday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats

 

So, I am still not totally bullish because the cell and gene therapy sector always … kind of moves along however (versus but), there is evidence of a slowdown coming and it's going to become, I think, even more thin as we go forward.

 

“Stuff” happens:

The Russell 2000 made its fourth-straight gain, up nearly 8% in that time. It would be the largest four-day rally for the small-cap benchmark since November 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

  • Volume was lower on the Nasdaq.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session:   

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.