July 16, 2024 4:24pm

Enjoying a period of success and share price appreciation

No summer doldrums here, as the sector ramped up with 7 positive closes (of my covered group) in a row, not seen in months

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +742.76 points or +1.85%, the S&P closed UP +35.98 points or +0.64% while the Nasdaq closed UP +36.77 points or +0.20%

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliner, 4 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 30 incliners, 2 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was up +1.92% and the XBI was up +1.95%
  • the VIX was up +0.14 point or +1.07% at 13.25

Economic Data Docket: Retail sales data also came in better than anticipated, which could ease concerns that the consumer was buckling. June sales were unchanged, while economists predicted a decline of 0.4%. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4%, a larger gain than the 0.1% consensus forecast.

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +210.88 points or +0.53%, the S&P closed UP +15.87 points or +0.28% while the Nasdaq closed UP +74.12 points or +0.40%

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was neutral with 16 incliner, 16 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 20 incliners, 9 decliners and 6 flats

  • the IBB was up +0.08% and the XBI was up +0.95%
  • the VIX was up +0.67 point or +5.38% at 13.13

Economic Data Docket: comments from Fed Chair Powell said the central bank wouldn’t wait until inflation was at its goal of 2% before lowering interest rates. He also said a hard landing scenario is unlikely for the economy. <CNBC>

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes advanced on Tuesday, while the small cap-focused Russell 2000 rose almost +3% and was on track for its 5th straight day of gains, after rising 1% Tuesday, after hitting its highest level since January 2022 on Monday.

  • Last week, the Russell 2000 surged more than 10%.

Retail sales data released came in strong than economists predicted.

Unloved corners of the market as cooling inflation data last week fueled bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates soon and skirt a recession. <CNBC>

“There’s a lot of momentum behind this rotation trade from big-cap tech into small caps and into the average stock. It’s a rotation, but it’s much more about the upside in the more cyclical sectors in the market than a referendum on AI’s long-term potential.” <Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird>

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 2 negative, 1 neutral (last Friday) and 7 positive closes 

Q2/24 -June: 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 12 negative closes

  • May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 12 negative closes
  • April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (2 of x2):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$6.35 after Monday’s -$4.33),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0129 after Monday’s -$0.0030),

Flat (3):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) – under $1.00

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 30):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.29 after Monday’s -$0.44),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.37 after Monday’s +$1.35),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.27 after Monday’s -$0.43),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$2.10),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.97),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.67 after Monday’s -$1.28 as CFO departs to old employer, JP Morgan),
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA +$1.34),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$1.08 after Monday’s +$0.65),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.97 after Monday’s +$1.75),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.92),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Wow, a new record for share pricing longevity as sector stocks are holding onto gains.

Sector optimism flooded Tuesday and Monday with 2 positive close this week (so far) after last week closed with 5 session positive closes.

At the same time, political matters continued to preoccupy a market betting that former President Trump is an even clearer frontrunner for the White House after he survived an assassination attempt over the weekend.

 

 I still believe that moneys coming off the table

  • The cell and gene therapy sector STILL looks frothy, but there’s no indication yet that sector earnings can’t support these valuations.
  •  When, there’s slippage it’s going to have an amplified effect.

 

Q3 and July to date:

  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 2 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 20 incliners, 9 decliners and 6 flats
  • Friday ended with a positive close of 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 19 incliners, 12 decliners and 4 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a neutral close of 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday was a market holiday
  • Wednesday was a day off
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • (7/1) Monday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats

 

So, I totally appreciate the ascension of the cell and gene therapy sector and Iove with respect the upside but, am aware of when electronic trading will strike the upside … always there is past evidence of a slowdown coming (it’s the contrarian in me) and it's going to become even more thin as we go forward.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ionia Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session:   2 today

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.