July 22, 2024 7:35am

This week, critical readings on economic growth and inflation, as well as the start of earnings, will determine if the malaise continues.

Pre-open Indications: 5 Positive, 3 Negative and 2 Sell into Strength

A daily analytic read-out from RMi is constructed of signals thought-provoking share pricing situations

History is quite clear that extended valuations aren't tolerated over the long run.

Never leave an investor uninformed

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today, not tomorrow or yesterday

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.16% or (+63 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.50% or (+27 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.83% or (+163 points)

  • Futures inch-up Monday after the broad market index suffered its worst weekly losses,
  • European markets rise as traders assess changed U.S. political landscape,
  • Asia stocks fall as Biden drops presidential bid.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -377.62 points or -0.93%, the S&P closed DOWN -39.59 points or -0.71% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -144.28 points or -0.81%

Economic Data Docket: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, June (-0.06 expected, +0.18 prior)

  • The advanced reading of Q2 economic growth is slated for Thursday
  • Due out on Friday, economists expect "core" PCE increased 2.5% in June from the previous year, down from May's 2.6% annual gain. Over the prior month, economists expect "core" PCE rose 0.2%, slightly above May's 0.1% increase. <Yahoo Finance>

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “The Humpty-Dumpty market and sector had a great fall. The week and Friday’s momentum stocks got whacked, as the breadth under the surface these last two weeks was taken for granted.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13555

 

Q3/24:

  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 5 negative, 1 neutral and 7 positive closes

Q2/24: 

  • June – 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 1 negative closes
  • May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes
  • April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and last Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Agenus (AGEN) closed down -$1.31 after Thursday’s -$11.43 after Wednesday’s +$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$2.10 with a positive +$0.06 or +1.00% aftermarket

Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +$0.42 after Thursday’s -$1.11, Wednesday’s -$0.73, Tuesday’s +$1.08 and Monday’s +$0.65 with a positive +$0.14 or +1.70% aftermarket

 

Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and last Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$1.13 after Thursday’s -$3.32, Wednesday’s -$9.81, Tuesday’s -$6.35 and Monday’s -$4.33 with a positive +$3.17 or +1.33% aftermarket

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$0.48 after Thursday’s -$1.47, Wednesday’s -$0.36, Tuesday’s +$1.67 and Monday’s -$1.28 as CFO departs with a positive +$0.35 or +1.35% aftermarket

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed down -$0.27 after Thursday’s -$0.72, Wednesday’s -$0.41 and Tuesday’s +$0.92 with a positive +$0.26 or +5% aftermarket

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (ION) closed up +$0.49 with a positive +$1.22 or +2.55% aftermarket

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$0.23 after Thursday’s -$1.11 and Wednesday’s -$1.38 with a positive +$0.95 or +2.23% aftermarket

 

Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and last Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$0.43 after Thursday’s -$1.06 with a negative -$0.37 or -1.76% aftermarket

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$1.01 after Thursday’s -$1.27 after Wednesday’s +$0.01 and Tuesday’s +$1.34 with a negative -$0.17 or -0.68% aftermarket

Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$1.12 with a negative -$0.98 or -1.96% aftermarket

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The sector started the week well, within the Nasdaq; but tumbled, with weakness broadening out later in the week.

On Friday, Thursday and Wednesday, the cell and gene therapy sector tanked after Tuesday, Monday and Friday's rallies sector gains.

  • For the balance of the month, investors will focus most on share pricing in regard to earnings EPS and meeting expectations!

 

Momentum stocks got whacked, hit, as the breadth under the surface these last two weeks was taken for granted.

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, surged nearly 33% to 16.53, the biggest weekly gain since March 2023. Still, the market fear gauge is well below the April (21.36) or October 2023 (23.08) peaks.

 

July week to date: advance/decline lines …

  • Friday ended with a negative close of 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 2 decliners and 3 flats
  • (7/15) Monday ended with a positive close of 21 incliners, 9 decliners and 6 flats
  • Friday ended with a positive close of 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 31 incliners, 2 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 19 incliners, 12 decliners and 4 flats
  • (7/8) Monday ended positive with 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a neutral close of 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday was a market holiday
  • Wednesday was a day off
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • (7/1) Monday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats

 

“Stuff” happens:

  • The small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 1.7%, but was well off Wednesday's multiyear high.
  • The Nasdaq tumbled 3.65%, decisively below its 21-day. It's now just 1.7% above its 50-day moving average, after being 8.9% above that key level on July 10.
  • While the 50-day line could provide support, there's no guarantee that the Nasdaq stops there.

 

Due “dates” are DUE soon for Q2 LPS (loss per-share) boding releases:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on Wednesday, 7/31
  • MiMedx (MDXG) on Wednesday, 7/31
  • Vericel (VCEL) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) Thursday, 8/1

 

Watch the “numbers, charts and indicators” measure the daily, weekly, and monthly charts can filter out or lessen the noise of back-and-forth share pricing from sector rotation.

  • The short-term moving averages help you identify the momentum of the trend — that is, overbought or oversold

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.