July 23, 2024 4:42pm

Share pricing continues its incline, who’s buying – electronic trading while I believe investors are hesitant about this market’s moves and sector travels as earnings season looms

News: Mesoblast Ltd (MESO +$0.72) the FDA has accepted its Biologics License Application (BLA) resubmission for Ryoncil® (remestemcel-L) in the treatment of children with steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGVHD). FDA anticipates a decision on or before the FDA’s Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) goal date of 1/7/25.

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -57.35 points or -0.16%, the S&P closed DOWN -8.67 points or -0.16% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -10.12 points or -0.06%

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliner, 7 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 4 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was down -0.61% and the XBI was UP +0.88%
  • the VIX was down -0.19 point or -1.27% at 14.72

Economic Data Docket: Existing home sales declined in June even as the median sales price hit a fresh record high. Sales totaled 3.89 million on the month, a 5.4% decline on both a monthly and annual basis and below the estimate for 3.95 million. The median sales price jumped 4.1% from a year ago to $426,900, the second straight month it has hit a new high and the 12th month in a row that the figure increased. Unsold inventory rose to the equivalent of 4.1%, the highest since May 2020.

  • The Philadelphia Fed’s nonmanufacturing index tumbled to a reading of -10 for the month, the lowest since April 2023 after hitting 15.1 in June. The index measures the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion against contraction. New orders and sales indexes showed sharp drops, and the employment index plunged to -4.9, the first negative reading since June 2023.

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +127.78 points or +0.32%, the S&P closed UP +59.41 points or +1.08% while the Nasdaq closed UP +280.63 points or +1.58%

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliner, 3 decliners and 5 flats; ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 4 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was up +1.54% and the XBI was up +1.42%
  • the VIX was down -1.71 point or -10.39% at 14.81

Economic Data Docket: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June 2024 was +0.05, down from +0.23 in May 2024. This was higher than the market expectation of -0.09.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a trend or a bend? As July moves on, the risk to share pricing and economic data is now greater in respect to inflation, as markets trend in fluctuating directions and earnings appear.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13560

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes wavered on Tuesday as traders readied for earnings reports from major companies.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX and fear gauge)’s 10-day rate of change indicator rose to 32 last week. That marks its highest level since April.

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 5 negative, 1 neutral and 9 positive closes

Q2/24 -June: 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 12 negative closes

  • May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 12 negative closes
  • April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (4 of 4):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.30 after Monday’s -$2.24),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.18 after Monday’s +$2.79),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0230),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.0101),

Flat (3):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) – under $1.00

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 28):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.27 after Monday’s +$1.11),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.32 after Monday’s +$1.47),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.13),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.08 after Monday’s +$0.66),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.01),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.95 after Monday’s +$1.68),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ+$0.87 after Monday’s +$0.53),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.73),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.72 after Monday’s +$1.91),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.72),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Cell and gene therapy sector share pricing bubbled-up …

  • As small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 up nearly 1%.
  • Both Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar remained stable ahead of a data-heavy week, featuring the Q2 GDP report on Thursday and the Fed’s favored inflation report on Friday.

I believe, the market and sector's ripe for a pullback from a sentiment perspective…

  • Tuesday and Monday, the oversold rebounded with help from “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs”!
  • Sector optimism elevated with help after accumulated pessimism last Friday, Thursday, Wednesday with 3 negative closes after Tuesday and Monday’s optimism with 2 positive close this week after last week closed with 5 session positive closes.

insight will be forth coming into the economy and the consumer by Thursday's report on Q2 GDP and Friday's update on the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

  • There’s more room for “tactical downside in the weeks to come as we enter the gauntlet of the weakest two months and only consecutive losing months for equities, with markets at all-time highs.

 

Q3 and July this week and last:

  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 28 incliners, 4 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 28 incliners, 4 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a negative close of 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 2 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 20 incliners, 9 decliners and 6 flats

 

Electronic trading pops the sector

  • There is past evidence of a slowdown coming (it’s the contrarian in me) and it's going to become even more thin as we go forward into Q2 earnings season

Due “dates” for Q2 LPS (loss per-share) earnings releases:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on Wednesday, 7/31
  • MiMedx (MDXG) on Wednesday, 7/31
  • Vericel (VCEL) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on Thursday, 8/1
  • AxoGen (AXGN) on Thursday, 8/8

The top three (3) performing in the session:  

  • Tuesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Vericel (VCEL) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), and Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and uniQure NV (QURE)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.