August 1, 2024 7:54am

As sector edged lower testing yet another level of support

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

However, global computer issues have slowed down the posts, I shall return!

Never leave an investor uninformed! End of Month for you - investor, still on vacation!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +99.46 points or +0.24%, the S&P closed UP +85.86 points or +1.58% while the Nasdaq closed UP +451.98 points or +2.64%

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 21 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 16 incliners, 13 decliners and 6 flats

  • the IBB was up +0.06% and the XBI was up +0.07%
  • the VIX was down -1.33 point or -7.52% at 16.36.

Economic Data Docket: During Fed Chair Powell’s press conference said that if data continues to give the central bank confidence that inflation is slowing, it could be ready to move.

  • Jobs data - The payrolls processing firm said nongovernment job growth was just 122,000, down from 155,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 150,000. 
  • The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) tracked for its best month in more than four years. The fund has climbed more than 19.5% so far in July’s trading month.
  • The employment cost index, a closely watched inflation variable for the Federal Reserve, increased less than expected in the second quarter, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Total compensation costs including salaries and benefits rose 0.9% for the April-through-June period, less than the 1.2% in the first quarter and below the Dow Jones estimate for a 1% increase.

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +203.40 points or +0.50%, the S&P closed DOWN -27.10 points or -0.50% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -222.78 points or -1.28%

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 21 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 6 incliners, 26 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was down -0.03% and the XBI was down -1.28%
  • the VIX was down -0.94 point or 5.31% at 16.75.

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -49.41 points or -0.12%, the S&P closed UP +4.44 points or +0.08% while the Nasdaq closed UP +12.32 points or +0.07%

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 10 incliners, 22 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 22 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was down -0.26% and the XBI was down -1.25%
  • the VIX was up +0.21 point or +1.28% at 16.60.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “come-in round the bend - positivity; gearing up for a busy week of earnings.”  NOT Published

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rallied Wednesday after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, while highlighting inroads against inflation.

Jobs data released Wednesday also hinted at a slowing economy and supported central bankers’ efforts to reduce inflation.

Even with revival on Wednesday, the Nasdaq still ended July in the red, off about 0.8%. The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% for the month, while the Dow posted a 4.4% gain for its best month since December amid investors’ rotation into cyclical corners of the market.

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

•              July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

Q2/24 -June: 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 12 negative closes

•              May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 12 negative closes

•              April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 13):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.76),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.32 after Tuesday’s -$0.46 after Monday’s -$1.21),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.27 after Tuesday’s +$1.01 after Monday’s +$0.12)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.25 after Tuesday’s -$0.33 after Monday’s +$0.21),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.14),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.11 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.01),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.07 after Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.67 after Monday’s +$0.44),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.04),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.24),

Flat (6):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) – under $1.00
  • Harvard apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Precigen (PGEN)
  • AxoGen (AXGN)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.65 after Tuesday’s -$2.47 after Monday’s +$1.44),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.27 after Tuesday’s -$3.31 after Monday’s -$1.85),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.88 after Tuesday’s -$2.09 after Monday’s +$0.58),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.31 after Tuesday’s -$0.53 after Monday’s +$0.38),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.30 after Tuesday’s -$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.61),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.20),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.18),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.15),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.10 after Tuesday’s +$0.13 after Monday’s -$0.40),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.08),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Cell and gene therapy sector share pricing inclined on Wednesday following Tuesday’s decline and Monday after Friday’s positive close following Thursday’s upswing after diving on Wednesday following Tuesday and Monday’s bubble-up positive closes …

  • Without “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” help to the upside, the cell and gene therapy sector rises to the occasion following slipping into the toilet!

Earnings prognostications (Zacks): Expectation …

Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) could deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for Q2/24.

  • BPMC is expected to post quarterly loss of $1.27 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +42%. Revenues are expected to be $104.55 million, up 81.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for Q2/24.

  • IONS is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.99 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -65%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $144.64 million, down 23.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2024.

  • This RNA interference drug developer is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.71 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +67.9%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $452.73 million, up 42% from the year-ago quarter.

Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (SAGE) could deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2024.

  • SAGE is expected to post quarterly loss of $1.66 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +38.1%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $8.48 million, up 243.3% from the year-ago quarter.

 

Prime Medicines (PRME) Consensus Estimate for loss per share in Q2 is pinned at -$0.40.

  • R&D expenses have likely seen an increase inQ2, driven by expenses related to the advancement of its pipeline and platform. G&A expenses will increase due to expansion of clinical activities.

 

Share pricing insight will be forth coming by Thursday's positive report on Q2 GDP and Friday's update on the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

  • There’s more room for “tactical downside in the weeks to come as we enter the gauntlet of the weakest two months and only consecutive losing months for equities, with markets at all-time highs.

 

Q3 and July to date:

  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 16 incliners, 13 decliners and 6 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday ended with a negative close of 10 incliners, 22 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a positive close of 19 incliners, 13 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of xx incliners, x decliners and x flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 9 incliners, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 28 incliners, 4 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 28 incliners, 4 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a negative close of 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 2 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 20 incliners, 9 decliners and 6 flats
  • Friday ended with a positive close of 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 19 incliners, 12 decliners and 4 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a neutral close of 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday was a market holiday
  • Wednesday was a day off
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • (7/1) Monday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats

 

Electronic trading pops and flops the cell and gene therapy sector

  • There is past evidence of a slowdown coming (it’s the contrarian in me) and it's going to become even more thin as we go forward into Q2 earnings season

 

Due “dates” for Q2 LPS (loss per-share) earnings releases:

  • Vericel (VCEL) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) on Thursday, 8/1
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) Tuesday, 8/6
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) Tuesday, 8/6
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) Wednesday, 8/7
  • AxoGen (AXGN) on Thursday, 8/8
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) on Thursday, 8/8

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Editas medicine (EDIT), Compass therapeutics (CMPX) and Generation Bio (GBIO)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Lenz therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM),

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.