August 1, 2024 5:17pm

As weak data shows cracks in US economy even as Fed signals a likely rate cut in September and earnings season LPS (loss-per-share) gravity strikes

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  Still on vacation, I feel guilty not publishing however, enjoying serious yard manual labor (in this heat) remedy multiple V&Ts!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -494.82 points or -1.21%, the S&P closed DOWN -75.62 points or -1.37% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -405.26 points or -2.30%

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 13 incliners, 19 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats

  • the IBB was down -0.59% and the XBI was down -0.39%
  • the VIX was up +2.23 point or +13.70% at 18.60

Economic Data Docket: Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Fed could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.

  • First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled 249,000 for the week ending July 27, an increase of 14,000, the Labor Department reported. That was the highest level since August 2023 and above the 235,000 Dow Jones estimate. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, increased to 1.877 million, the highest level since Nov. 27, 2021.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “weakness pervades and selling pressures increase” NOT published

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes kicked the dog down the street as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.

Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February. <CNBC>

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • August: 1 negative close
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

Q2/24 -June: 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 12 negative closes

  • May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 12 negative closes
  • April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 29):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$8.01 after Wednesday’s +$1.27, Tuesday’s -$3.31 after Monday’s -$1.85),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$3.00 after Wednesday’s -$0.76),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.44 after Wednesday’s +$0.88 after Tuesday’s -$2.09 and Monday’s +$0.58),
  • BEAM Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.33),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.19 after Wednesday’s +$0.15),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.07 after Wednesday’s -$0.06, Tuesday’s -$0.67 and Monday’s +$0.44),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.94 after Wednesday’s -$0.04),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.87 after Wednesday’s +$0.31, Tuesday’s -$0.53 and Monday’s +$0.38),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.77 after Wednesday’s -$0.14),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.66 after Wednesday’s -$0.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.24),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM))
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (4 of 4):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$31.15 after Wednesday’s +$3.65, Tuesday’s -$2.47 and Monday’s +$1.44),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.32. Tuesday’s -$0.46 and Monday’s -$1.21),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.26 with 175 shares traded – its own DST Capital),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.15)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Give it up … hope evaporates with sector finance … the LONG view gets complicated!

As Q2 numbers sweep the sector … hold tight numbers on the way!

 Cell and gene therapy sector share pricing declined on Thursday after inclining on Wednesday following Tuesday’s decline and Monday after Friday’s positive close following Thursday’s upswing after diving on Wednesday following Tuesday and Monday’s bubble-up positive closes …

  • Without “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” help to the upside, the cell and gene therapy sector rises to the occasion following slipping into the toilet!

Earnings “whispers” (Zacks): Expectation …

Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) could deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for Q2/24.

  • BPMC is expected to post quarterly loss of $1.27 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +42%. Revenues are expected to be $104.55 million, up 81.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for Q2/24.

  • IONS is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.99 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -65%.
  • Revenues are expected to be $144.64 million, down 23.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Prime Medicines (PRME) Consensus Estimate for loss per share in Q2 is pinned at -$0.40.

  • R&D expenses have likely seen an increase inQ2, driven by expenses related to the advancement of its pipeline and platform. G&A expenses will increase due to expansion of clinical activities.

AxoGen (AXGN) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for Q2/2024.

  • is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.05 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -66.7%.

Precigen, Inc. (PGEN), another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2024.

  • expected to post quarterly loss of $0.09 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -12.5%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 12.5% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.
  • revenues are expected to be $1.28 million, down 27.7% from the year-ago quarter.

 

Share pricing insight will be forth coming by Thursday's positive report on Q2 GDP and Friday's update on the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

  • There’s more room for “tactical downside in the weeks to come as we enter the gauntlet of the weakest two months and only consecutive losing months for equities, with markets at all-time highs.
  • Revenues are expected to be $43.27 million, up 13.4% from the year-ago quarter.

 

Q3 and August to date:

  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats

 

Electronic trading pops and flops the cell and gene therapy sector

  • There is past evidence of a slowdown coming (it’s the contrarian in me) and it's going to become even more thin as we go forward into Q2 earnings season

 

Due “dates” for Q2 LPS (loss per-share) earnings releases:

  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) Tuesday, 8/6
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) Tuesday, 8/6
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) Wednesday, 8/7
  • AxoGen (AXGN) on Thursday, 8/8
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) on Thursday, 8/8
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) on Thursday, 8/8

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) with 175 shares traded
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Compass therapeutics (CMPX) and Generation Bio (GBIO)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday:  Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM),

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.