August 9, 2024 4:59pm

Too much weekly drama in navigating volatility and share pricing churn

Is there a “reckoning” coming, there could be more pain ahead for the sector and markets

Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) 1 share sell drops share pricing -$0.25 to $2.30; after Thursday’s 0, Wednesday’s +0.22 with 700 shares traded, Tuesday’s 0 with 2,800 shares traded and Monday’s 0. Ponzi Scheme?

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in review

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +51.05 points or +0.13%, the S&P closed UP +24.85 points or +0.47% while the Nasdaq closed UP +85.28 points or +0.51%

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 20 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats

  • the IBB was DOWN -0.01% and the XBI was UP +0.57%
  • the VIX was down -3.37 point or -14.17% at 20.422

Economic Data Docket: no big data events (for once)

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +683.04 points or +1.76%, the S&P closed UP +119.81 points or +2.30% while the Nasdaq closed UP +464.211 points or +2.87%

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliners, 11 declined and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 26 incliner, 6 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was UP +3.99% and the XBI was UP +2.96%
  • the VIX was down -4.21 point or -15.15% at 23.63

Economic Data Docket: First-time filings for jobless benefits came in at 233,000 last week, down 17,000 from the previous week and lower than the estimate for 240,000.

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -234.21 points or -0.60%, the S&P closed DOWN -40.53 points or -0.77% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -171.05 points or -1.05%

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 16 incliners, 17 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats

  • the IBB was down -1.80% and the XBI was down -2.20%
  • the VIX was up +0.39 point or +1.41% at 28.10

Economic Data Docket: The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) index of mortgage applications jumped 6.9% for the week ended Aug. 2, according to new data published Wednesday. At the same time, the average rate on the popular 30-year loan dropped to 6.55% last week from 6.82%. It marked the lowest level for interest rates since May 2023.

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +294.39 points or +0.76%, the S&P closed UP +53.70 points or +1.04% while the Nasdaq closed UP +166.77 points or +1.03%

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 17 incliners, 15 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 23 incliner, 9 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was up +0.45% and the XBI was up +1.08%
  • the VIX was down -10.67 point or -27.56% at 27.90

Economic Data Docket: The U.S. trade deficit declined in June but not by as much as expected, the Commerce Department reported. The goods and services shortfall fell to a seasonally adjusted $73.1 B, down $1.9 B from May but above the estimate for $72.5 B. Exports rose $3.9% while imports, which subtract from GDP, were up $2 B. At the country level, the imbalance with China fell to $22.3 B, down $1.6 B.

 

(8/5) Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -1,033.20 points or -2.60%, the S&P closed DOWN -160.23 points or -3% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -576.08 points or -3.43%

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 0 incliners, 31 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 1 incliner, 31 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was down -2.82% and the XBI was down -3.15%
  • the VIX was up +13.93 point or +59.23% at 37.32

Economic Data Docket: The ISM services index registered a 51.4% reading for the month; up from 48.8% in June and better than the Dow estimate for 50.9%.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Waiting for a follow-through session … don’t get excited quite yet. The stock market rebounded Tuesday after several days of sharp losses, despite a late fade; now we waiting for a follow-through session to reduce the risk of buying-in too early for confirming uptrends.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13572

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes inched HIGHER Friday built on its comeback from Monday’s violent rout.

  • Algos and electronic trading bought the dip on the notion another crisis or recession was not on the horizon.
  • The week’s earlier losses were tied more to hedge funds unwinding a long-time bet on a cheap Japanese yen rather than fundamental threats to the economy.
  • The Dow is down -0.7% for the week and the Nasdaq is lower by -0.4%.
  • The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) measures fear reached past heights.

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • August: 2 positive and 5 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 24):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.96 after Thursday’s +$0.70),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.94 after Thursday’s +$10.29 after Wednesday’s -$2.39 after Tuesday’s -$2.44 and Monday’s -$7.05),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.92 after Thursday’s +$1.07 after Wednesday’s -$1.18),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.85 after Thursday’s +$0.59 after Wednesday’s -$2.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.33 and Monday’s -$1.45),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.65 after Thursday’s +$0.94 after Wednesday’s -$1.44 after Tuesday’s +$0.89 and Monday’s -$1.76).
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.45),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.45 after Thursday’s -$0.24),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.36),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.34 after Thursday’s +$0.93),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.34),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (9 of 9):

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.51 after Thursday’s +$0.69 after Wednesday’s -$0.83 after Tuesday’s +$0.79),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.46 after Thursday’s +$0.59 after Wednesday’s -$1.89, Tuesday’s -$0.23 and Monday’s -$3.75),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.32 after Thursday’s +$2.78 after Wednesday’s +$0.09),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.17),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.104),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.08),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.03),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.02),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.014 after Thursday’s -$0.03),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The recent jolts of volatility this week reverberated on Friday decline and Thursday’s incline after drooping on Wednesday following Tuesday’s pop and Monday’s decline in a new week …

  • Could be a preview of the rest of the month, quarter and year …
  • Economic concerns, geopolitical conflict and the looming November elections could keep investors on edge in the coming months.

For the week:

  • The S&P 500 is down 2.40 points, or less than 0.1%.
  • The Dow is down 239.72 points, or 0.6%.
  • The Nasdaq is down 30.86 points, or 0.2%.
  • The Russell 2000 is down 28.39 points, or 1.3%.

For the year:

  • The S&P 500 is up 574.33 points, or 12%.
  • The Dow is up 1,808.00 points, or 4.8%.
  • The Nasdaq is up 1,733.95 points, or 11.6%.
  • The Russell 2000 is up 53.84 points, or 2.7%.

 

August is historically a rocky month for the stock market due to lighter trader volumes.

  • As Q2 earnings numbers sweep … hold tight more earnings numbers on the way, we can NOT battle the downslide!

 

“Looking ahead here, I think we're going to continue to churn below the July 16 high. The churn will probably continue through September, October, until the November elections. So, I expect the market to kind of go sideways with a lot of volatility below that July 16 high. And then I think we could very well have a year-end rally, a Santa Claus rally." < Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni>

 

Without “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” hindered to the downside, the cell and gene therapy sector dives into the toilet!

 

Reiterating, “There’s more room for “tactical downside in the weeks to come as we enter the gauntlet of the weakest two months and only consecutive losing months for equities, with markets at all-time highs.”

 

Q3 and August to date:

  • (8/9) Friday ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 26 incliner, 6 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 23 incliner, 9 decliners and 3 flats
  • (8/5) Monday ended with a negative close of 1 incliner, 31 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a negative close of 5 incliners, 28 decliners and 2 flats
  • (8/1) Thursday ended with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats

 

Electronic trading pops and flops the cell and gene therapy sector - this week!

  • There is past evidence of a slowdown coming (it’s the contrarian in me) and it's going to become even more thin as we go forward into Q2 earnings season

 

Due “dates” for Q2 LPS (loss per-share) earnings releases:

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) Wednesday, 8/14
  • Precigen (PGEN) Wednesday, 8/14

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), AxoGen (AXGN) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Wednesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Vericel (VCEL) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Monday: uniQure NV (QURE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Thursday: Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.