August 21, 2024 8:01am

No cell and gene therapy company is immune to economic events without rolling into downdrafts

A daily analytic read-out from RMi is constructed of signals thought-provoking share pricing situations

Pre-open/Aftermarket Indications: 3 Positive, 1 Negative and 1 Sell into Strength

NOTICE: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for the 12 months ended 3/24. This data is NOW used to revise previous payroll employment reports. Has the BLS been overstating monthly releases for years? <read below>

Never leave an investor uninformed

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Wednesday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.16% or (+66 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.16% or (+9) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.11% or (+22 points)

  • Stock futures are positive on the low side Wednesday,
  • European markets were higher,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly lower.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -61.56 points or -0.15%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.13 points or -0.20% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -59.83 points or -0.33%

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 27 incliner, 6 decliners and 2 flats

 

Economic Data Docket: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for the 12 months ended 3/24.

  • This data is NOW used to revise previous payroll employment reports. They come with a lag, but are generally accepted to be more accurate than the initial monthly releases, which were already revised … 2X.
  • As many as a million jobs could VANISH from US jobs data in revised numbers released this week.
  • Jobs growth in the year through March was likely much lower than initially estimated, top bankers are warning.  <Daily Mail>
  • This could REFUEL concerns that the US economy is not as robust as it has appeared, and that the Fed is falling behind in its aim to lower interest rates.
  • A downward revision of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years, and would suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer than was originally thought. <Bloomberg>
  • Evercore ISI analysts Krishna Guha and Marco Casiraghi said in a note Monday that while the Fed has been expecting this revision, it will 'underline that the picture of strength in payrolls is not as vigorous as it had appeared in real time.'
  • JPMorgan Chase forecasters predict a smaller decline of 360,000 jobs, according to Bloomberg.
  • Goldman Sachs economists expect jobs growth for the year will be at least 600,000 weaker than current estimates - and the decline could be as much as a million.

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “slippin’ and slidin’. Summer fluctuations, I believe highlights “attention deficit” by investors but, maximizes the risk of adverse price movements as algorithms and electronic trading in alternating sessions “run the tables.” Investors are also readying themselves for the Fed’s Powell remarks Friday. investors NEED to eventually see a ROI (return-on-investment) as volatility continues to elevate in 2H/24.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13582    

 

Q3/24:

  • August – I neutral, 5 positive and 8 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday as last Wednesday was a market holiday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$6.28 after Monday’s +$6.24 with a positive +$3.74 or +1.33% aftermarket.

 

Positive Indications:

Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday as last Wednesday was a market holiday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

AxoGen (AXGN0 closed up +$0.06 with a positive +$0.24 or +1.95% aftermarket.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.76 after Monday’s +$1.98 with a positive +$0.38 or +0.77% aftermarket

Regenxbio (RGNX) closed down -$0.61 with a positive +$0.16 or +1.35% aftermarket.

 

Negative indications

Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday as last Wednesday was a market holiday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$0.77 after Monday’s +$0.73 with a negative -$1.01 or -1.91% aftermarket.

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  When you’re riding’ herd on your portfolio, take a look back every now and then to make sure your “cows” are moving”

  • Indexes dived on Tuesday as the cell and gene therapy sector shrunk share pricing after Monday’s “pop” as investors looking ahead to Fed chief Jerome Powell on Friday.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 slumped 1.2% after the Nasdaq snapped it’s 8-day winning streak.

 

A quote to ponder, "If you're brave and you think the Fed has stuck the landing, will navigate and push us through that ever-closing window and start a new market cycle. Then you want to be aggressive, you want to buy beta, you want to buy deep value, you want to buy leverage,". "I think it's a risky bet given where we are with markets right now. I prefer to be balanced. I prefer to use the industrial sector as an example to offset transportation, which is an offensive category, with waste collection, which is a defensive category." < Allspring Global Investments senior portfolio manager Bryant VanCronkhite>

 

Watch the “numbers, charts and indicators” measure the daily, weekly, and monthly charts to filter out or lessen the noise of back-and-forth share pricing from the sector rotation.

  • The short-term moving averages help you identify the momentum of the trend — that is, overbought or oversold

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.