August 23, 2024 7:52am

The Fed’s Jerome will deliver his annual keynote policy speech at 10 a.m. ET … to or not signal a coming interest rate reduction in/for September?

Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, until one sees the greening of the board

As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a strategist/prognosticator/truth teller who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

There is no breadline for share pricing and fact-based intelligence! A daily analytic read-out from RMi is constructed of signals thought-provoking share pricing situations.

Never leave an investor uninformed 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Friday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.36% or (+148 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.52% or (+28 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.76% or (+148 points)

  • Stock futures rose Friday as traders await a Fed Chair Jerome Powell for guidance on future rate cuts,
  • European stocks were higher,
  • Asia Pacific markets were mostly lower ahead of Powell’s speech.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -177.71 points or -0.43%, the S&P closed DOWN -50.21 points or -0.89% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -299.63 points or -1.67%

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 4 flats

Economic Data Docket: Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “a daily cell and gene therapy sector wobble. RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: a daily cell and gene therapy sector wobble.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13586

 

Q3/24:

  • August – I neutral, 6 positive and 8 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

  • Yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications in preparing ahead for the release by Fed Chair Powell from the annual Jackson Hole conference as expectation in the aftermarket fluctuated while the pre-open waits for the all-clear alarm …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  My advice: change is everywhere … now is not the time to take up more risk or less risk. Thursday, choked-off a two-day rally with sharp losses that got worse toward the close.

The stock market rally looks healthy heading into Powell's Jackson Hole speech, will markets cheer or jeer Powell speech?

  • Powell is likely to signal that the central bank is ready to begin Fed rate cuts. With recent economic data once again favoring a soft-landing scenario, markets are pricing in a quarter-point rate cut on Sept. 18, with 75-100 basis points for the full year.
  • If Powell suggests the Fed will cut rates more gradually, markets could react negatively.

 

Should investors to gradually shift their cash into core bonds …

  • With a Fed rate cut on the horizon, bonds may enter a period of outperformance. He cites historical data: out of 12 Fed cutting cycles, "bonds outperformed cash by an average of 8%, so when rates come down, bonds typically do better than cash." <Sébastien Page, T. Rowe Price Global Head of Multi-Asset and Chief Investment Officer>

As interest rates begin to go down, cell and gene therapy equities could also look more attractive at these lows with the overall sector benefiting.

 

I advise investing in revenue driven, collaborative partnered and solid runway funded companies like

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and
  • Vericel (VCEL)

… calling these few 3-year-term investments.

 

Think a game of monopoly and follow RMi’s interchanges to gain profit moves or recoup losses – eat the popcorn and ponder ANY moves!

  • Short on words, long on being Judicious!

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-military officer, x-FBI,  x-corporate manager and officer, an adjunct business school (MBA) professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets and just about … everything!

  • As a quantamental “plotter” I equate myself to a quantitative analyst straddling fundamental stock picking to produce better results for investors. the term “quantamental,” blends the two styles setting forth my difference retail, trading and multiple investor categories.

TRUST but, VERIFY!

 

Watch the “numbers, charts and indicators” measure the daily, weekly, and monthly charts to filter out or lessen the noise of back-and-forth share pricing from the sector rotation.

  • The short-term moving averages help you identify the momentum of the trend — that is, overbought or oversold

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.