August 23, 2024 4:46pm

1 week or 5 sessions (for a few days off and an escape from alternating share pricing) to go until September

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors - RMi

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in Review

 

 

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +462.30 points or +1.14%, the S&P closed UP +63.97 points or +1.15% while the Nasdaq closed UP +258.44 points or +1.47%

Henry’omics

  • Indexes rose on Friday after Fed Chair Powell indicated interest rate cuts were on the horizon.
  • With Friday’s gains, the Dow and Nasdaq have each added around 1.3%, while the S&P 500 has risen 1.4%.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliners, 3 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats

  • the IBB was up +1.02% and the XBI was up +1.37%
  • the VIX was down -1.93 point or down -10.97% at 15.62

Economic Data Docket: “The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said during the Fed’s annual retreat. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

 

As compared with …

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -177.71 points or -0.43%, the S&P closed DOWN -50.21 points or -0.89% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -299.63 points or -1.67%

Henry’omics:

  • Indexes pulled back on Thursday, readying for a speech by Fed Chair Powell at the annual Jackson Hole conference.
  • Stocks also felt downward pressure from rising bond yields on Thursday. Notably, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed around 10 basis points to 3.875%. <CNBC>

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 19 declined and 4 flats; ending with a negative close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 4 flats

  • the IBB was down -1.16% and the XBI was down -1.60%
  • the VIX was up +2.79 point or +18.81% at 17.59

Economic Data Docket: Initial filings for unemployment benefits were a bit higher than expected last week, while the longer-term trend continued to rise.

  • Jobless claims totaled 232,000 for the week ending Aug. 17, up 4,000 from the previous period and slightly higher than the 230,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, nudged up to 1.863 million, an increase of 4,000 and the highest level since Nov. 27, 2021.
  • Sales of previously owned homes snapped a four-month losing streak in July, rising 1.3% month over month to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.95 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.

 

As compared with …

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +55.52 points or +0.14%, the S&P closed UP +23.73 points or +0.42% while the Nasdaq closed UP +102.05 points or +0.57%

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Wednesday, indexes ticked higher as traders looked ahead to minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting — seeking further insight into the prospect of an interest rate cut.
  • Stocks are coming off a losing session, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping their longest winning streaks since late 2023. That was just the latest action in a choppy month for equities. <CNBC>

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 22 incliners, 9 declined and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was up +0.52% and the XBI was up +0.98%
  • the VIX was up +1.50 point or +10.14% at 16.30

Economic Data Docket: As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of the following year.

  • At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less. Other areas revised lower included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000) and trade, transportation and utilities (-104,000).
  • Within the trade category, retail trade numbers were cut by 129,000.
  • A few sectors saw upward revisions, including private education and health services (87,000), transportation and warehousing (56,400) and other services (21,000).
  • Government jobs were little changed after the revisions, picking up just 1,000.
  • A separate indicator showed the manufacturing sector contracted more than expected.
  • Things got worse when the nonfarm payrolls report for July showed job creation of just 114,000 and another tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. <CNBC>

Fed officials at their July meeting moved closer to a long-awaited interest rate reduction, but stopped short while indicating that a September cut had grown increasingly probable, minutes released Wednesday showed.

 

As compared to …

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -61.56 points or -0.15%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.13 points or -0.20% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -59.83 points or -0.33%

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Tuesday, indexes ticked lower on Tuesday as investors struggled to continue building on the market’s month.
  • Despite Tuesday’s moves, the major averages have bounced back and market volatility has tumbled since the start of the month. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
  •  is now under 16 after topping 65 on Aug. 5. That was also the day that the S&P 500 suffered its worst session since 2022 amid a global market sell-off sparked by a weak July jobs report and an interest rate hike in Japan. <CNBC>

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 15 incliners, 17 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats

  • the IBB was down -0.28% and the XBI was down -0.02%
  • the VIX was up +1.22 point or +8.33% at 15.87

 

As compared with …

Monday: The Dow closed UP +236.77 points or +0.58%, the S&P closed UP +54 points or +0.97% while the Nasdaq closed UP +245.05 points or +1.39%

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Indexes traded higher Monday as markets look toward a possible signal this week from Fed Chair Powell about interest rates.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 7 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 27 incliner, 6 decliners and 2 flats

  • the IBB was up +2.04% and the XBI was up +3.15%
  • the VIX was down -0.17 point or -1.15% at 14.63

Economic Data Docket: The economic and market spotlight this week will shift to Jackson Hole, Wyo., for the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium, which runs Thursday through Saturday.

 

 

RegMed Investors (RMI) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) Chronicles: Reports Q2/24 results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13580

  • After a Research Note Monday, OTCQB: HRGN closed down -$0.05 with 50 shares traded to $2.25 and traded flat on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday's +0.30 with 714 shares traded <Thank you, DST Capital (in house fund??).

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • August: 1 neutral, 7 positive and 9 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (5 of 5):

  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0022)
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0045)
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.32),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.62 after Thursday’s -$0.64, Wednesday’s +$0.85, Tuesday’s -$0.31 and Monday’s +$1.18),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.69 after Thursday’s -$1.84, Wednesday’s -$1.59, Tuesday’s +$6.28 and Monday’s +$6.24),

 

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 28):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.06 after Thursday’s -$0.97, Wednesday’s +$0.96, Tuesday’s -$0.47 and Monday’s +$0.57),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.91 after Thursday’s -$0.59 and Wednesday’s +$0.97),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.35 after Thursday’s -$2.49, Wednesday’s +$0.92, Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s +$1.98),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.08 after Thursday’s -$1.27, Wednesday’s +$1.58, Tuesday’s -$2.50 and Monday’s -$2.21),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.82 after Thursday’s -$1.27),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.75 after Thursday’s -$0.61 and Wednesday’s +$0.43),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.46),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.36 after Thursday’s +$0.28)
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.34 after Thursday’s +$0.01)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.31 after Thursday’s -$0.69, Wednesday’s +$4.04, Tuesday’s -$0.77 and Monday’s +$0.73),

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Speaking at the Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is ready to cut rates.

Cell and gene therapy share pricing ascended on Friday – thank you Jerome and “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs) after Thursday was shucked like corn after jumping on Wednesday after diving Tuesday after popping Monday after last week's gains, pain and a neutral share pricing as a measure of calm returns – hope springs eternal but, not a technical factor.

  • As “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” left last week’s Friday’s closing sector pricing neutral, pumped 2 sessions and dumped 2 sessions of the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing!
  • Last week slowed with the sector’s Friday neutral close after Thursday’s positive close following Wednesday’s negative close, Tuesday’s positive close and Monday’s negative close.
  • Following the previous week’s Friday’s decline and the previous Thursday’s incline after drooping on Wednesday following Tuesday’s pop and Monday’s decline in a new week …

 

"I think the idea that volatility is behind us is wrong... There's a lot of things that can bring volatility over the coming 30 days, over the coming couple of months. And so, I think it's wrong to be complacent. You have to be very nimble and very wary of it. And that's why I think the most important dip to buy is probably VIX." < Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick>

 

Investors will also keep a watchful eye on the Democratic National Convention, which ended Thursday and did NOT bring ANY insight into what to expect from presidential nominee Harris.

 

Q3 and August’s 3rd full week:

  • Friday ended with a positive close of 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 2 incliners, 29 decliners and 4 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • (8/19) Monday ended with a positive close of 27 incliner, 6 decliners and 2 flats

 

Electronic trading pops and flops the cell and gene therapy sector

  • There is evidence of a slower … slowdown coming (it’s the contrarian in me) and it's going to become even more thin as we go forward into 2H/24.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Friday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Thursday: Agenus (AGEN)
  • Wednesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Wednesday; Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Monday: Agenus (AGEN), Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.