August 30, 2024 5:00pm

As investors brace for September, historically known as the worst month for equities

As I have written, share pricing satisfaction and disappointment come in alternating or leapfrogging sessions

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +228.03 points or +0.55%, the S&P closed UP +56.44 points or +1.01% while the Nasdaq closed UP +197.19 points or +1.13%

  • As compared with Thursday: The Dow closed UP +243.63 points or +0.59%, the S&P closed DOWN -0.22 points or -0.00% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -39.60 points or -0.23%
  • As compared with Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -159.08 points or -0.39%, the S&P closed DOWN -33.62 points or -0.60% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -198.79 points or -1.12%
  • As compared with Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +9.98 points or +0.02%, the S&P closed UP +8.96 points or +0.16% while the Nasdaq closed UP +29.06 points or +0.16%
  • As compared with Monday’s … The Dow closed UP +65.44 points or +0.16%, the S&P closed DOWN -17.77 points or -0.32% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -152.03 points or -0.85%

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Friday, indexes rose on Friday, with the Dow posting a fresh record high, as investors ended a volatile month on a high note.
  • The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July and 2.5% from a year ago. The result was in line with estimates. Excluding food and energy, it also rose 0.2% from the prior month.
  • As August ends, the S&P 500 has a +1.5% gain after losing as much as 7.3%, the Dow adds +1.1% after losing as much as -5.4%, while the Nasdaq has lagged -0.2% which was down as much as 10.7%,

 

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliners, 5 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a luckily positive at the close of 18 incliner, 13 decliners and 4 flats

  • As compared with Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliners, 5 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 25 incliner, 7 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 21 decliners and 5 flats; ending with a negative close of 10 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 6 incliners, 26 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 8 incliner, 22 decliners and 5 flats
  • As compared with Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliners, 8 declined and 3 flats; at 10:30 a.m., a dramatic decline occurred with a negative 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flat ending with a positive close of 18 incliner, 13 decliners and 4 flats

 

Metrics:

Friday, the IBB was down -0.11% and the XBI was up +0.35% while the VIX was down -0.71 point or down -4.53% at 14.95

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.50% and the XBI was up +0.37% while the VIX was down -1.46 point or down -8.53% at 15.65
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.06% and the XBI was down -0.52% while the VIX was up +1.68 point or up +10.89% at 17.11
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.01% and the XBI was down -0.62% while the VIX was up +0.62 point or up +4.19% at 15.42
  • As compared with Monday: the IBB was down -0.07% and the XBI was up +0.19% and the VIX was up +1.30 point or +8.78% at 16.10

 

Pre-open post: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “I’m over this volatile month, any trend this month, August got bent. Waiting for the month to end, time to be off the rollercoaster.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13596

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) raises $5 M without name identification … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13590

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (13 of 13):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$23.32 after Thursday’s +$6.31 after Wednesday’s +$0.44, Tuesday’s +$11.22 and Monday’s -$3.50),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.22 after Thursday’s +$0.65, Wednesday’s +$0.90, Tuesday’s +$1.55 and Monday’s -$0.12),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.56 after Thursday’s +$0.65, Wednesday’s -$0.59, Tuesday’s -$0.64 and Monday’s -$0.05),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.37),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.83, Wednesday’s -$0.17, Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday’s +$0.30),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.16 after Thursday’s +$0.79, Wednesday’s -$0.24, Tuesday’s -$0.82 and Monday’s +$0.30),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.10 after Thursday’s +$0.28, Wednesday’s -$0.40, Tuesday’s -$0.31 and Monday’s -$0.10),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.04 after Thursday’s +$0.57 and Wednesday’s -$0.50),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.04),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.03 after Thursday’s -$0.0309),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.03),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.02),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0095 after Thursday’s -$0.0015 and Wednesday’s +$0.0061),

Flat (4):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN $0.00 after Thursday’s +$0.40, Wednesday’s +$0.29, Tuesday’s +$0.30 and Monday’s $0.00),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 18):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.93 after Thursday’s +$0.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.39, Tuesday’s -$1.94 and Monday’s +$0.53),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.29 after Thursday’s $0.00 after Wednesday’s +$0.10),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.57 after Thursday’s +$0.26 after Wednesday’s +$0.35),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.34),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.27),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.22),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.22),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.17),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.16 after Thursday’s -$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$0.52 after Tuesday’s -$0.24),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.16 after Thursday’s +$0.34),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: a bumpy ride to the end of the month and, under the hood, a too much has declined.

Up, down, round and round as “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” jumped in for a closing upside ascension.

  • Popped on Monday, wrecked on Tuesday and scuttled on Wednesday followed by a winning close on Thursday to dive and lose on Friday…
  • Cell and gene therapy share pricing ascended last Friday – thank you Jerome and “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs) after Thursday was shucked like corn after jumping on Wednesday after diving Tuesday after popping Monday neutral share pricing
  • As “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” left the previous week’s Friday’s closing sector pricing neutral, pumped 2 sessions and dumped 2 sessions of the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing!
  • The second week of the month slowed with the sector’s Friday neutral close after Thursday’s positive close following Wednesday’s negative close, Tuesday’s positive close and Monday’s negative close.
  • Following the 1st week of August’s Friday’s decline and the previous Thursday’s incline after drooping on Wednesday following Tuesday’s pop and Monday’s decline in a new week …

 

A report Friday showed US consumer sentiment improved for the first time in five months as slower inflation and prospects for Fed cuts helped lift expectations about personal finances. The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation — the core personal consumption expenditures price index — rose at a mild pace.

  • In response … “The markets are now awaiting next week’s job market figures, which should determine whether the Fed opens the rate cut ball with a 50 or 25 basis point cut - the difference between an emergency cut and a normalization cut,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

 

The up/downs in sessions could be a preview of the rest of the quarter and year …

  • Economic concerns, geopolitical conflict and the looming November elections could keep investors on edge in the coming months.

 

Reiterating, “There’s more room for “tactical downside in the weeks to come as we enter the gauntlet of the weakest two months and only consecutive losing months for equities, with markets at all-time highs.”

  • As to the above … “There are a few theories for why September tends to be a weaker month for stocks. For one thing, investors returning from summer vacations tend to reassess portfolio positioning defensively. Companies prepare their budgets for the coming year and debate belt tightening. And mutual funds often engage in “window dressing” by selling positions at a loss to reduce the size of their capital-gains distributions.” < Bespoke Investment Group>

 

Q3 and August’s month ending:

  • Friday ended with a positive close of 18 incliner, 13 decliners and 4 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 7 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 10 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 8 incliners, 22 decliners and 5 flats
  • (8/26) Monday with a positive close of 18 incliners, 13 decliners and 4 flats

 

  • Friday ended with a positive close of 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 2 incliners, 29 decliners and 4 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • (8/19) Monday ended with a positive close of 27 incliner, 6 decliners and 2 flats

 

  • Friday ended neutral with 15 incliners, 15 decliners and 5 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 23 incliner, 9 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 22 incliner, 10 decliners and 3 flats
  • (8/12) Monday ended with a negative close of 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats

 

  • Friday ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 26 incliner, 6 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 23 incliner, 9 decliners and 3 flats
  • (8/5) Monday ended with a negative close of 1 incliner, 31 decliners and 3 flats

 

  • Friday ended with a negative close of 5 incliners, 28 decliners and 2 flats
  • (8/1) Thursday ended with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats

 

Electronic trading pops and flops the cell and gene therapy sector

  • There is evidence of a slower … slowdown coming (it’s the contrarian in me) and it's going to become even more thin as we go forward into 2H/24.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Beam therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: Ionis therapeutics (IONS), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Therapeutics (IONS)
  • Monday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Vericel (VCEL) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) and Agenus (AGEN)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and MiMedx (MDXG)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.