September 4, 2024 4:41pm

Traders are bracing for more volatility in September, historically a weak month for equities; anticipating a pullback of 5% or more in the coming weeks

I ask are their more unforeseen “Black Swan” events headed our way?

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +38.04 points or +0.09%, the S&P closed DOWN -8.86 points or -0.16% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -52 points or -0.30%

  • Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -626.15 points or -4.51%, the S&P closed DOWN -119.47 points or -2.12% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -577.33 points or -3.26%
  • Monday was a holiday

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes floated down a red river …

As sector equities bounced off their lows as the so-called yield curve of the Treasury market returned to a normal state. The curve had been inverted with the 10-year rate lower than the 2-year yield with the 10-year yield returned to even with the 2-year yield and went slightly higher.

The “Street” is coming off a losing session, with the major benchmarks posting their worst day going back to the Aug. 5th sell-off, as the latest economic data implied slowing growth for the U.S. economy

JOLTS report – JULY 2024; The number of job openings was little changed at 7.67 M on the last business day of July below the 8.1 M estimate.

  • Over the month, hires changed little at 5.5 M. Total separations increased to 5.4 M. Within separations, quits (3.3 M) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 M) changed little.
  • After the data, markets moved to price in a nearly 50% chance the Fed slashes interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of its September meeting, up from a 38% chance the day prior. <CME FedWatch Tool>

Beige Book: 9 out of 12 Fed regional districts reported flat or declining economic activity in August.

  • That’s up from 5 districts that reported weak conditions in the last report in mid-July
  • The four districts that have experienced weaker conditions than in the prior report appeared to be Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta and St. Louis.
  • Across the country, employment held steady but consumer spending ticked down in most districts, the survey found.

 

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 2 incliners, 31 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative at the close of 14 incliner, 19 decliners and 2 flats

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 21 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative at the close of 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday was a holiday
     

Metrics:

Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.11% and the XBI was down -0.14% while the VIX was up +0.60 points or up +2.90% at 21.32

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.69% and the XBI was down -2.57% while the VIX was up +5.11 points or up +32.86% at 20.66
  • Monday was a holiday

 

All-time lows:

  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) at $3.43
  • Prime Medicine (PRME) at $3.81

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Will market Sirens continue to lure sector investors to rocky shores.”  … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13600

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • September – 2 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 19):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.07 after Tuesday’s -$2.61),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.64 after Tuesday’s -$8.91 after Monday’s holiday),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.49 after Tuesday’s -$2.20 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.40 after Tuesday’s +$0.21 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.35 after Tuesday’s -$0.82),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.32 after Tuesday’s -$2.28 after Monday’s holiday),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.16),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.15 after Tuesday’s +$0.65 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Generation Bio -$0.11)
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.10)

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (14 of 14):

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.25 after Tuesday’s -$1.45 after Monday’s holiday)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.34),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.41 after Tuesday’s -$1.07 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$2.00 after Tuesday’s -$0.67 after Monday’s holiday),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.20),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.09),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.08 after Tuesday’s -$3.01 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.07),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.03),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.03),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.02),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.02),
  • Editas medicine (EDIT +$0.01),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.01)

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Indexes were lower on Wednesday, coming off a steep sell-off fueled by worries about economic growth …

  • The slow start for stocks to begin September now has investors bracing for more volatility as a historically tough month for markets follows a turbulent August.
  • With volatility seeping back into markets ahead of the US election and ongoing geopolitical tensions, it may prove difficult for investors to find stable footing for their portfolios. <Yahoo Finance>
  • Reiterating from yesterday, “The markets do not like uncertainty... small caps really hate uncertainty unless to its favor. So many different interruptive factors in play that could contribute to sector slides and jives.”

Q3 and September’s 1st week:

  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 14 incliners, 19 decliners and 2 flats
  • (9/3) Tuesday ended with a negative close of 3 incliners, 29 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN), Mesoblast (MESO) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Monday: holiday

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: holiday

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.