September 5, 2024 4:48pm

As expectation could experience even more volatility

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -219.22 points or -0.54%, the S&P closed DOWN -16.66 points or -0.30% while the Nasdaq closed UIP +43.37 points or +0.25%

  • Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +38.04 points or +0.09%, the S&P closed DOWN -8.86 points or -0.16% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -52 points or -0.30%
  • Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -626.15 points or -4.51%, the S&P closed DOWN -119.47 points or -2.12% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -577.33 points or -3.26%
  • Monday was a holiday

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes struggled Thursday as investors dumped risk assets and concerns mounted over the outlook for the U.S. economy ahead of Friday’s keynote labor report.

Fresh labor market data Thursday sent mixed signals about the health of the U.S. economy as questions linger over whether the Fed is behind the curve on rate cuts.

  • Private payrolls data showed the weakest growth since 2021, heightening fears of a slowing labor market.
  • Weekly claims for unemployment benefits declined from the previous week. <CNBC>

 

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 15 incliners, 17 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative at the close of 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 2 incliners, 31 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative at the close of 14 incliner, 19 decliners and x flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 21 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative at the close of 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday was a holiday
     

Metrics:

Thursday, the IBB was down -0.49% and the XBI was down -0.45% while the VIX was down -1.45 points or down -6.80% at 19.87

  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.11% and the XBI was down -0.14% while the VIX was up +0.60 points or up +2.90% at 21.32
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.69% and the XBI was down -2.57% while the VIX was up +5.11 points or up +32.86% at 20.66
  • Monday was a holiday

 

All-time lows:

  • Prime Medicine (PRME) at $3.73

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “creeping upside as weekly jobless claims data focuses the session. All 3 averages are down for the week; dramatic upside moves usually get creamed.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13602

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • September – 3 negative close
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 18):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.66 after Wednesday’s +$0.64 after Tuesday’s -$8.91 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.20 after Wednesday’s +$0.08 after Tuesday’s -$3.01 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.87 after Wednesday’s -$1.07 after Tuesday’s -$2.61),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.84 after Wednesday’s +$2.00 after Tuesday’s -$0.67 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.57 after Wednesday’s +$0.02),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.36 after Wednesday’s +$0.09),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.34 after Wednesday’s +$0.35 after Tuesday’s -$0.82),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.20 after Wednesday’s +$0.20),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.40 after Tuesday’s +$0.21 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.150),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 15):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.50 after Wednesday’s +$0.34),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.33 after Wednesday’s +$0.41 after Tuesday’s -$1.07 after Monday’s holiday),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.22 after Wednesday’s -$0.49 after Tuesday’s -$2.20 after Monday’s holiday),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.19),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.15 after Wednesday’s -$0.10)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.14),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$0.16),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.10),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.10 after Wednesday’s -$0.32 after Tuesday’s -$2.28 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.08 after Wednesday’s -$0.15 after Tuesday’s +$0.65 after Monday’s holiday),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The market has shown hyper sensitivity to potential growth scares in recent weeks, including Tuesday’s sell-off on the heels of weak manufacturing data.

Wednesday didn’t help as well …

  • Which puts heightened scrutiny on labor market data, with all eyes on tomorrow, Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report.
  • A weak July report released last month spurred recession fears and a raft of volatility in August.

 

Trader’s pricing in big stock market moves on jobs Friday:

  • Options market pricing data reviewed by Morgan Stanley’s trading desk shows investors are bracing for big stock moves on Friday.
  • The S&P 500 is tipped to move 1.1% in either direction, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is expected to swing 1.8%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, meanwhile, is expected to see a 1.4% move.
  • This positioning comes as traders brace for a major U.S. jobs report. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 161,000 jobs for August. <CNBC>

 

 Q3 and September’s 1st week:

  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 15 incliners, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 14 incliners, 19 decliners and 2 flats
  • (9/3) Tuesday ended with a negative close of 3 incliners, 29 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Thursday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP
  • Wednesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN), Mesoblast (MESO) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Monday: holiday

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: holiday

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.