September 16, 2024 4:31pm

Looking ahead toward the Fed’s policy release on Sept. 18, where the Fed anticipates lowering interest rates by 25 basis points

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) Chronicles: Are they up to their old tricks, they never stopped; pumping the share price by volume to their old tricks? A Ponzi Scheme, a Madoff look-a-like or just a PRC, Communist China “infiltration” strategy? Share pricing gets flipped as DST Capital primes the pump of volume to add pricing to the recent private placement of outstanding stock? <83,101 shares trades in past 10 sessions in September, trying to trade up from an OTCQB listing to a Nasdaq after most recent financing of outstanding shares?>

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +228.30 points or +0.55%, the S&P closed UP +7.07 points or +0.13% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -91.85 points or -0.52%

  • The Nasdaq composite fared worst among the major indexes but was off lows as it ended 0.5% lower. It tested its 50-day moving average after retaking the benchmark late last week.
  • Last week, the Dow has advanced 2.6%, the S&P 500 rose 4% and the Nasdaq gained 5.9%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Investors are “profit-taking” on cell and gene therapy sector gains; as indexes closed mixed after a rough start to a historically weak September.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 19 decliners and 5 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector declined in relation to a lot of ifs that has to do with the future rate cuts that are about to come into play.

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +0.19% and the XBI was up +0.07% while the VIX was up +0.56 points or up +3.38% at 17.12

 

As compared to: Friday: The Dow closed UP +297.01 points or +0.72%, the S&P closed UP +30.26 points or +0.54% while the Nasdaq closed UP +114.30 points or +0.65%

  • Small caps dominated, with the Russell 2000 up +2.5%. The small-cap index rebounded after last week’s -5.7% drop; it has gained +4.2% so far this week.
  • For the week, the Dow has advanced 2.6%, the S&P 500 rose 4% and the Nasdaq gained 5.9%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Indexes closed positive posting gains with the Nasdaq trading near the session's highs.   

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliners, 5 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 3 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector ascended to new heights

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +1.55% and the XBI was up +2.17% while the VIX was down – 0.51 points or down -2.99% at 15.56

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “any which way. While Friday’s aftermarket show bouts of volatility as Fed interest rate decision looms after the Nasdaq led markets higher to nab its best week of the year + 6%.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13617

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: Q3/24

  • September – 4 positive and 6 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 26):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.60 after Friday’s +$4.80),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.49 after Friday’s +$1.37),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.20 after Friday’s +$3.05),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.15 after Friday’s +$1.60),
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.95 after Friday’s +$1.21),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.68 after Friday’s +$1.90),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.56 after Friday’s +$1.40),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.40),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.35),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.26),

Flat (3):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)

Monday’s Closing Up (6 of 6):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.10 after Friday’s +$3.54),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.62 after Friday’s +$0.91),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.50),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.34 after Friday’s +$0.84),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.06),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.01 after Friday’s -$0.15),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: shake the session for ripe (to be picked) share pricings … It's a critical week for monetary policy as several central banks around the globe are slated to release interest rate decisions.

The 3rd week of September’s Monday, bolted to the downside …

  • The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive
  • following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

Quotes still relevant, “Investors are on guard for further bouts of volatility, particularly given the expectations surrounding the Fed meeting. Based on historical patterns, stocks typically have their roughest performance of the year during the second half of September.” <Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, CNBC>

  • Are we prepared for … a BIGGER dive in share pricing?

 

“Front-loading cuts a 25-basis-point cut "makes sense" as the Fed is behind the curve.

  • The Fed should have started easing monetary policy back in June, in July, perhaps. But now we're in September and we're late in the game."
  • The Fed walks a delicate tightrope. If you ease monetary policy by 25 basis points, it does little to nothing in terms of consumer rates, auto loan rates, mortgage rates, very little.
  • But the risks are asymmetric.
  • If the Fed does not ease monetary policy by as much as markets are anticipating, then you'll actually see a repricing of rates and you're going to see upward movement in terms of rates, and that could damage consumer spending activity, housing activity, business investment. That is the real risk right now.
  • The Fed's data dependency "breeds volatility," which then causes "sudden repricing in markets that are deterring economic activity.
  • That's the real risk right now, is that the Fed does not do what the markets are anticipating. And that's a lack of communication and a lack of robust framework on the part of the Fed that is leading to this." < EY chief economist Greg Daco>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Friday: Verve Therapeutics (VERV), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Mesoblast (MESO)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.