September 19, 2024 4:53pm

The day after; is there a walk of shame i.e. decline coming as equities moved skyward after rate cut?

Economy’s new word – bifurcation, I also believe in … consumers are feeling the squeeze, facing mounting debts at elevated interest rates while inflation eats into wage gains

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +522.09 points or +1.26%, the S&P closed UP +95.38 points or +1.70% while the Nasdaq closed UP +440.68 points or +2.51%

  • Indexes spurred the economy to jump Thursday
  • Many investors were surprise to some investors who criticized the size of this initial cut

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Economic Data Docket: initial unemployment claims for the week ended Sept. 14 fell to 219,000 versus estimates for 230,000. Claims numbered 230,000 for last week.
  • Equities surged
  • September has historically been a bad month for stocks. But Septembers like this one usually happen before a strong fourth quarter.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 31 incliners, 2 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 8 decliners and 3 flats

  • The current pricing of the sector (in my mind) presents some downside risks
  • Existing home sales for August came in at 3.86 M, missing estimates for 3.9 M

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was UP +1.32% and the XBI was UP +1.61% while the VIX was down -1.90  points or down -10.42% at 16.33

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: No morning post as market and sector were expected/poised/anicipated to elevate after rate decision

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q3/24

  • September – 7 positive and 7 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (8 of 8):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.13 after Wednesday’s +$0.12 after Tuesday’s -$0.03),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$0.28 after Tuesday’s +$1.67 after Monday’s -$1.20),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.09 after Wednesday’s +$0.14 after Tuesday’s +$0.22),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.07),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$ after Wednesday’s -$0.13),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.42 after Tuesday’s +$0.24),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.01),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.0030),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 24):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.18 after Wednesday’s -$1.31 after Tuesday’s +$3.03 after Monday’s +$5.10),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.00 after Wednesday’s +$0.27 after Tuesday’s -$2.01 after Monday’s +$0.34),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.68 after Wednesday’s +$2.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.29 after Monday’s -$1.15), 
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.61 after Wednesday’s +$2.82 after Tuesday’s +$0.47 after Monday’s -$2.60),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.08 after Wednesday’s -$0.79 after Tuesday’s -$1.01 after Monday’s +$0.62),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.24 after Tuesday’s -$0.15 after Monday’s -$0.40),
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.40 after Tuesday’s +$0.19 after Monday’s -$0.95),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$ after Wednesday’s +$0.07 after Tuesday’s -$0.04 after Monday’s -$0.68),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.51 after Wednesday’s -$0.31),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.41)

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Expectation was in the bag after rate decision.

  • Thursday, the Nasdaq displayed a dramatic turnaround for cell and gene therapy sector equities.

I would also think … cell and gene therapy sector companies could have an EASIER time in seeking FINANCE!

  • The PROBLEM going forward is Q3’s end readying for earnings releases.

The 3rd week of September’s as Thursday’s sector ascended to new heights after Wednesday declined after Tuesday ascended helped by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” after Monday, bolted to the downside …

  • The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive
  • Following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

 

Are we prepared for … a BIGGER dive in share pricing?

 

Consider and ponder: from Citi head of US equity strategy, Scott Chronert...

“From a stock market perspective, I think we're in a transition phase."

  • We're at the end of a two-year hawkish Fed narrative, and we're going down the path of something different. But this first 50-basis-point cut... we're still in a fairly restrictive monetary mode.”
  • “The transition phase that we're in here is that we have to allow that, historically, when the Fed begins to ease, it's typically in response to some underlying economic concern.” Chronert told Yahoo Finance, stating Citi has been “referring to it as fraying around the edges.”
  • “We don't think it dramatically impacts the S&P 500 aggregate index earnings performance, but we have to allow that as we go into the Q3 reporting period and then into the end of the year, there's probably a bit more downside risk to those more traditionally economic sensitive sides of parts of the market as to their fundamental trajectories.”

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and AxoGen (AXGN)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Verve Therapeutics (VERV), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Tuesday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.