September 23, 2024 4:46pm

Keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on being judicious!

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +60.83 points or +0.14%, the S&P closed UP +16.02 points or +0.28% while the Nasdaq closed UP +25.95 points or +0.14%

  • Indexes were positive yet eked a slow percentage (%) performance  
  • Last week, the Dow has advanced +2.6%, the S&P 500 rose +4% and the Nasdaq gained +5.9%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Investors parsed fresh economic data on Monday, including a 15-month low reading for PMI manufacturing activity in the U.S. for August.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector was bottoming as the volatility roadmap was redrawn

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -1.62% and the XBI was down -2.37% while the VIX was down -0.26 points or down -1.61% at 15.89

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +38.17 points or +0.09%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.09 points or -0.19% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -65.66 points or -0.36%

  • Indexes closed mixed Friday to cap a big week that came in the wake of the Fed decision on rate easing
  • For the week: the Dow jumped +1.6%, the S&P 500 is up +1.4%, while the Nasdaq is up +1.5%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • September has historically been a bad month for stocks. But Septembers like this one usually happen before a strong Q4.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 27 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats

  • The small-cap Russell 2000 fared worse than the other major indexes and gave up 0.7%. 

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -1% and the XBI was -0.80% while the VIX was down -0.26 points or -1.59% at 16.07

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Last full week of September +1 session. The news cycle could be light before earnings season ramp up in October. Always have an eye to exit; if the Nasdaq falls back toward the 50-day line and growth falters, dragged down by economic releases … listen to the market.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13626

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q3/24

  • September – 7 positive and 9 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 29):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.05 after Friday’s -$2.45),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$11.62 after Friday’s +$0.74),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.44 after Friday’s -$1.31),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.19),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.97 after Friday’s +$0.05),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.93 after Friday’s -$0.39),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.93 after Friday’s +$0.02),
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.85 after Friday’s +$0.31),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.61),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.54)

Flat (3):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)

Monday’s Closing Up (3 of 3):

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.09 after Friday’s +$0.00),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.06),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) +$0.0187

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Again, are we prepared for … a BIGGER dive in share pricing?

As I have stated, there’s a variety of factors what could catalyze a pullback in cell and gene therapy sector equities as investor sentiment evaporates daily with investors concerned that the “our universe” is stretched, near-term overbought, and valuations extended.

Economic output steadied in September, as election uncertainty weighs on business confidence …

  • “Business sentiment, demand, hiring and investment are being subdued by uncertainty surrounding the Presidential Election, casting a shadow over the outlook for the year ahead at many firms." < Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence>

S&P Global's flash US composite PMI came in at 54.4 in September, down from 54.6 in August.

  • Economists had expected the index, which captures activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors, to tick down slightly. <Josh Schafer, Yahoo>
  • Any reading above 50 for these indexes represents expansion in the sector; readings below 50 indicate contraction.


The 4th week of September’s Monday closed negative …

  • The 3rd week of September’s as Friday bombed the sector after Thursday’s sector ascended to new heights after Wednesday declined after Tuesday ascended helped by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” after Monday, bolted to the downside …
  • The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive
  • Following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Monday: Harvard apparatus RT (OTVQB: HRGN), Generation Bio (BBIO) and bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Mesoblast (MESO) and LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ)o

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.