September 24, 2024 4:44pm

 Although “Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” were outside the door, coming-in for a visit with a late session present - a positive close

News: bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.011 to $0.50) Restructuring with a reduction in workforce of approximately 25%; scaling back approximately 40 drug product deliveries per Q, 20% reduction in cash operating expenses with hope to obtain cash to extend “runway”.

Think of “our” universe as a game of shuts and ladders or sometimes monopoly

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on being fact based and judicious!

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +83.57 points or +0.20%, the S&P closed UP +14.36 points or +0.25% while the Nasdaq closed UP +100.25 points or +0.56%

  • The month so far, the major averages were headed for solid gains; the Dow was up 1.5% in September. The S&P 500 rose +1.4% and the Nasdaq 1.9%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Consumer confidence suffered its biggest 1 month decline in more than 3 years, hitting 98.7 for September; down from an upwardly revised August reading of 105.6. economists expected a reading of 104.
  • US home prices hit a record high in July, but the pace of price increases moderated. The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 0.2% over the prior month in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, unchanged from June’s monthly increase. This marked the 6th consecutive monthly increase and an all-time high for the index.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 23 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 2 flats

  • The sector closed positive having been infused by share pricing

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.34% and the XBI was down -0.48% while the VIX was down -0.46 points or -2.89% at 15.43

 

As compared to … Monday: The Dow closed UP +60.83 points or +0.14%, the S&P closed UP +16.02 points or +0.28% while the Nasdaq closed UP +25.95 points or +0.14%

  • Indexes were positive yet eked a slow percentage (%) performance  
  • Last week, the Dow has advanced +2.6%, the S&P 500 rose +4% and the Nasdaq gained +5.9%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Investors parsed fresh economic data on Monday, including a 15-month low reading for PMI manufacturing activity in the U.S. for August.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector was bottoming as the volatility roadmap was redrawn

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -1.62% and the XBI was down -2.37% while the VIX was down -0.26 points or down -1.61% at 15.89

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q3/24

  • September – 8 positive and 9 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 15):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.63),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.83 after Monday’s -$0.93),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.83 after Monday’s -$2.05),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.46),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.21 after Monday’s +$0.06),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.20 after Monday’s $0.00),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.19 after Monday’s +$0.09),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.19),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.13 after Monday’s -$0.54)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.13),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 18):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.53),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.40),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.211 after Monday’s -$11.62),
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.15 after Monday’s -$0.85),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.12),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.09),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.08),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.06 after Monday’s -$0.61),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.05 after Monday’s -$0.93),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.05),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: another uptick in volatility for cell and gene therapy sector stocks … at least to the upside.

As I wrote on Monday again, are we prepared for … a BIGGER dive in share pricing?

As I have also stated, “there’s a variety of factors what could catalyze a pullback in cell and gene therapy sector equities as investor sentiment evaporates daily with investors concerned that the “our universe” is stretched, near-term overbought, and valuations extended.”


The 4th week of September’s Tuesday closed positive after Monday closed negative …

  • The 3rd week of September’s as Friday bombed the sector after Thursday’s sector ascended to new heights after Wednesday declined after Tuesday ascended helped by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” after Monday, bolted to the downside …
  • The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive
  • Following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

 

Factoid: a pop is a pop with a positive close ...

  • Volume was higher on the Nasdaq versus the same time Monday.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), AxoGen (AXGN) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)  
  • Monday: Harvard apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN), Generation Bio (BBIO) and bluebird bio (BLUE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

 

Consumer confidence tumbled in September as Americans grew increasingly worried about the labor market. <my favorite, Josh Schafer, Yahoo Finance>

  • The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 98.7, below the 105.6 seen in August and lower
  • "The persistent drop in this measure is a clear sign that the labor market is not nearly as tight as it once was," Wells Fargo economist Shannon Seery Grein wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "That said, we're hesitant to put too much weight on this data given broader confidence measures have remained depressed this cycle despite resilient spending habits of households."

Think of these sort-of macro quote opinions:

... In regard to the Fed lowering interest rates and the remarks from officials like Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the sole dissenter to the last cut.

  • As financial services stocks (XLF) trade lower, Skylar Weinand of Regan Capital explains what the rate cuts mean for the sector.
  • “It's kind of counterintuitive, but these big Fed drops actually hurt these banks in the short term…financials get hurt because they're not earning as much on their cash, and they're not able to lower their deposits that quickly.
  • Yet they still have these loans and investments out there that are still only earning 2 to 4%.”
  • “People have been talking about the curve D inverting well that's only two years [treasury yields] to ten years.
  • Whereas the front end of the curve, one-month [treasury bills], three-month bills, where deposits go, overnight repo, that needs to come down a lot more a couple hundred basis points to like 3%, which is where they're scheduled to go in a year from now.”

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.