September 25, 2024 4:32pm

"Low Ceiling – High Floor", It's one of the few mantras that has remained true

Think of “our” universe as a game of shuts and ladders or sometimes monopoly

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -293.53 points or -0.70%, the S&P closed DOWN -10.68points or -0.19% while the Nasdaq closed UP +7.68 points or +0.04%

  • Indexes retreating from their latest records.
  • All 3 indexes are on track for a positive September, though fears of a slowing economy still linger after last week’s rate cut from the Fed.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Data from the US Census Bureau showed that new home sales in August declined (sales slipped 4.7% in August to 716,000, down from July’s revised reading of 751,000) by less than economists were expecting.
  • While mortgage applications surged to their highest level since 2022, with refinancing seeing the highest jump, up 20% week-over-week.
  • The question now becomes whether or not the US economy could find itself in a recession, with concerns fanned by a surprisingly weak reading on consumer confidence. <Yahoo Finance>

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats

  • The sector closed deep in the red …

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.52% and the XBI was down -0.96% while the VIX was up +0.03 points or +0.19% at 15.42

 

All time low:

  • Prime Medicine (PRME) at $3.41
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) at $7.02
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) at $5.77

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Slow is smooth, smooth is fast. Caution, move carefully as concerns that volatility remains on the surface of financial markets. “Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” did assist Tuesday’s close, will they continue?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13629

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q3/24

  • September – 8 positive and 10 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 26):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$3.27 after Tuesday’s +$0.211 after Monday’s -$11.62),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.87),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.81),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.77),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.72),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$1.63),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.38 after Tuesday’s -$0.46),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.35 after Tuesday’s +$0.06 and Monday’s -$0.61),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.09),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$0.53),

Flat (3):

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (3 of 3):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.73 after Tuesday’s -$0.83 and Monday’s -$2.05),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.12),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI $0.0031)

 

The BOTTOM LINE: More uptick in volatility for cell and gene therapy sector stocks … to the downside.

  • As I wrote on Monday again, are we prepared for … a BIGGER dive in share pricing – dah!

As I have also stated, “there’s a variety of factors what could catalyze a pullback in cell and gene therapy sector equities as investor sentiment evaporates daily with investors concerned that the “our universe” is stretched, near-term overbought, and valuations extended.”


The 4th week of September’s Wednesday closed negative; Tuesday closed positive after Monday closed negative …

  • The 3rd week of September’s as Friday bombed the sector after Thursday’s sector ascended to new heights after Wednesday declined after Tuesday ascended helped by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” after Monday, bolted to the downside …
  • The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive
  • Following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), AxoGen (AXGN) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)  
  • Monday: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN), Generation Bio (GBIO) and bluebird bio (BLUE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

 

Think of these sort-of macro quote opinions:

In regard to the Fed lowering interest rates and the remarks from officials like Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the sole dissenter to the last cut.

  • As financial services stocks (XLF) trade lower, Skylar Weinand of Regan Capital explains what the rate cuts mean for the sector. “It's kind of counterintuitive, but these big Fed drops actually hurt these banks in the short term…financials get hurt because they're not earning as much on their cash, and they're not able to lower their deposits that quickly.
  • Yet they still have these loans and investments out there that are still only earning 2 to 4%.”
  • “People have been talking about the curve D inverting well that's only two years [treasury yields] to ten years.
  • Whereas the front end of the curve, one-month [treasury bills], three-month bills, where deposits go, overnight repo, that needs to come down a lot more a couple hundred basis points to like 3%, which is where they're scheduled to go in a year from now.”

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.