September 27, 2024 7:56am

Translation, don't go buying or selling without thinking; it's dumb, and could bite your portfolio

Q3 ends on this coming Monday, 9/30

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninformed

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Friday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.01% or (-4 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.06% or (-3 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.14% or (-28 points)

  • Futures traded near the flatline and still fluctuating Friday awaiting inflation readings,
  • European markets rose to a fresh record high,
  • Asia Pacific markets mostly rose.

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +260.36 points or +0.62%, the S&P closed UP +23.11 points or +0.40% while the Nasdaq closed UP +108.09 points or +0.60%

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats

Economic Data Docket: University of Michigan consumer sentiment and

  • September final (69 prior) PCE inflation, month over month, August (+0.1% expected, +0.2% previously); PCE inflation, year over year, August (+2.3% expected, +2.5% previously); "Core" PCE, month over month, August (+0.2% expected, +0.2% previously); "Core" PCE, year over year, January (+2.7% expected; +2.6% previously)

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “sectors back in a positive close as econs follow expectation. Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs came to visit and stayed after expected economic data.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13632

 

Q3/24:

  • September – 9 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as August PCE expectation is up-for-grabs as the aftermarket fluctuated while the pre-open waits for the all-clear alarm …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Reiterating, “Uncertainty and skepticism reigns … and volatility is on-call in today’s sector.”

The 4th week of September’s cell and gene therapy sector closed Thursday positive after Wednesday closed negative; Tuesday closed positive after Monday closed negative

•             The 3rd week of September’s as Friday bombed the sector after Thursday’s sector ascended to new heights after Wednesday declined after Tuesday ascended helped by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” after Monday, bolted to the downside …

•             The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive

•             Following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

 

Today’s econ data:

  • The August reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the inflation metric favored by the Fed, is seen as crucial to those calculations. While policymakers have shifted their focus to the labor market, they still haven't met their inflation goal of 2%.

Expect the PCE print to come in at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.5% for July, when it's released at 8:30 am ET.

  • That would support the Fed's decision to lower rates by 50 basis points last week and provide scope for another jumbo cut in November.
  • But any sign of sticky price pressures could revive worries that policymakers have stepped off the brakes too early.

 

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.