September 27, 2024 4:41pm

I’ve had enough of econ releases, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index that excludes volatile food and energy prices — clocked in at +2.7% over the prior year during the month of August

I believe, suggests coming weakness and greater risks to pricing stability

Recent good news is decent but, how long does its aura last

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in Review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +137.89 points or +0.33%, the S&P closed DOWN -7.20 points or -0.13% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -70.70 points or -0.39%

  • For the week, the 3 major indexes are higher for the week, with the S&P 500 is up +1% and the Dow +0.7% and the Nasdaq +1%.             

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • August’s personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation — increased 0.1%, matching expectations from economists. PCE increased 2.2% at an annualized pace, below the 2.3% forecast            

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliners, 6 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats

  • Weird stats from me: ups +$0.14 to +$3.49 versus downs -$0.01 to -$0.88

Metrics:  Fridays, the IBB was up +0.46% and the XBI was up +0.24% while the VIX was UP +1.48 points or +9.63% at 15.85.

 

Friday’s Closing Down (11 of 11):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.88 after Thursday’s -$0.13 after Wednesday’s -$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$1.63),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.79 after Thursday’s -$1.54 after Wednesday’s -$0.72),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.25),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.21 after Thursday’s -$0.27),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.10),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.07 after Thursday’s +$0.62),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.04),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0320),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.03 after Thursday’s +$0.48),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.40),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.01),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 22):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$3.49 after Thursday’s +$2.06 after Wednesday’s -$3.27 after Tuesday’s +$0.211 after Monday’s -$11.62),
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.79 after Thursday’s +$0.68),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.83 after Thursday’s +$0.57 after Wednesday’s -$0.87),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.43 after Thursday’s -$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$0.77),
  • Adverum Therapeutics (ADVM +$0.33),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.18 after Thursday’s +$0.44 after Wednesday’s -$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$0.53),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.21),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$ after Thursday’s +$0.155 after Wednesday’s -$0.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.09),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.17 after Thursday’s +$0.19),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.14)

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Don’t squat with your spurs on. Translation, don't go buying or selling without thinking; it's dumb, and could bite your portfolio. Q3 ends on this coming Monday, 9/30.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13633  

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Now to the week that was:

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +260.36 points or +0.62%, the S&P closed UP +23.11 points or +0.40% while the Nasdaq closed UP +108.09 points or +0.60%

  • Indexes jumped on Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for fresh record highs

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, pointing to a steady labor market.
  • Durable goods orders for August were unchanged versus economists’ expectations for a decline. And the final reading of second-quarter GDP was unrevised at a strong 3%.
  • Gross domestic product rose at a 3% annualized rate in Q2, according to the last of 3 readings from the Commerce Department; in line with market expectations.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats

  • The sector closed to the upside with more than a little help from trading, electronic and human

Metrics:  Thursdays, the IBB was up +1.09% and the XBI was up +0.45% while the VIX was down -0.03 points or -0.19% at 15.38

 

As compared to: Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -293.53 points or -0.70%, the S&P closed DOWN -10.68points or -0.19% while the Nasdaq closed UP +7.68 points or +0.04%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Data from the US Census Bureau showed that new home sales in August declined (sales slipped 4.7% in August to 716,000, down from July’s revised reading of 751,000) by less than economists were expecting.
  • While mortgage applications surged to their highest level since 2022, with refinancing seeing the highest jump, up 20% week-over-week.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats

  • The sector closed deep in the red …

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.52% and the XBI was down -0.96% while the VIX was up +0.03 points or +0.19% at 15.42

 

As compared to: Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +83.57 points or +0.20%, the S&P closed UP +14.36 points or +0.25% while the Nasdaq closed UP +100.25 points or +0.56%

  • The month so far, the major averages were headed for solid gains; the Dow was up 1.5% in September. The S&P 500 rose +1.4% and the Nasdaq 1.9%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Consumer confidence suffered its biggest 1 month decline in more than 3 years, hitting 98.7 for September; down from an upwardly revised August reading of 105.6. economists expected a reading of 104.
  • US home prices hit a record high in July, but the pace of price increases moderated. The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 0.2% over the prior month in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, unchanged from June’s monthly increase. This marked the 6th consecutive monthly increase and an all-time high for the index.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 23 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.34% and the XBI was down -0.48% while the VIX was down -0.46 points or -2.89% at 15.43

 

As compared to: Monday: The Dow closed UP +60.83 points or +0.14%, the S&P closed UP +16.02 points or +0.28% while the Nasdaq closed UP +25.95 points or +0.14%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Investors parsed fresh economic data on Monday, including a 15-month low reading for PMI manufacturing activity in the U.S. for August.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector was bottoming as the volatility roadmap was redrawn

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -1.62% and the XBI was down -2.37% while the VIX was down -0.26 points or down -1.61% at 15.89

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Haven’t changed my spiel, there is more uptick in volatility for cell and gene therapy sector stocks coming … at least today, it was the upside.

  • Although … risky markets are STILL anticipated!
     

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … “the labor markets are just not as big of a source of inflationary pressures as they were before as the upcoming election could explain some of the mixed signals coming from the labor market”

 

The 4th week of September’s Friday and Thursday popped to a positive close after Wednesday closed negative; Tuesday closed positive after Monday closed negative …

  • The 3rd week of September’s as Friday bombed the sector after Thursday’s sector ascended to new heights after Wednesday declined after Tuesday ascended helped by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” after Monday, bolted to the downside …
  • The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive
  • Following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

 

Think and read and question … revisionist GDP gov releases:

  • And while the focus what is largely on recent data, the revisions went back several years — and one in particular caught our eye.
  • Initially, the Bureau of Economic Analysis had reported that growth in the US economy declined at a 0.6% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2022. This followed a negative print in the first quarter and, at the time, stirred recession discussion as two negative quarters of GDP is an often-referenced indicator of recession.
  • But after some revisions revealed on Thursday, it turns out the US never actually had 2 negative quarters of GDP. Revisions to GDP data now show the US economy grew by an annualized rate of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2022. <Josh Schafer, Yahoo Finance>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), and LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), AxoGen (AXGN) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)  
  • Monday: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN), Generation Bio (GBIO) and bluebird bio (BLUE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Thursday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.