September 30, 2024 8:10am

News: Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.72) announced a strategic research collaboration and license agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) to develop reagents for the next generation of ex vivo T-cell therapies. Under the terms of the agreement, PRME will design optimized Prime Editor reagents for a select number of targets, including reagents that use its Prime Assisted Site-Specific Integrase Gene Editing (PASSIGE™) technology. BMY will be responsible for development, manufacturing and commercialization of the next generation cell therapies, with support from PRME in gene editing strategy and reagent development. Mesoblast (MESO +$0.53) has entered into a convertible note subscription agreement with its largest shareholder Gregory George for issue, at its sole discretion, up to US$50 million (A$72.7 million) on approval by the FDA of MESO’s lead product candidate Ryoncil® (remestemcel-L) in the treatment of children with steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGvHD).

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninformed

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.15% or (-63 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.22% or (-12 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.30% or (-60 points)

  • U.S. stock futures were down and all but flat on Monday, the last session of September and Q3,
  • European stocks were lower,
  • Asia Pacific markets traded mixed on Monday, before closing for the rest of the week due to the Golden Week holiday.

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies while Japan flipped down

Friday: The Dow closed UP +137.89 points or +0.33%, the S&P closed DOWN -7.20 points or -0.13% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -70.70 points or -0.39%

  • Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats

The September jobs report (10/4) is expected to provide further clues on how quickly the labor market is cooling. Updates on job openings, activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, and consumer confidence are also on the calendar.

Economic Data Docket: MNI Chicago PMI, September (46.4 expected, 46.1 prior); Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, September (-10.6 expected, -9.7 prior)

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “the week that was as September and Q3 ends Monday. I’ve had enough of econ releases, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index that excludes volatile food and energy prices — clocked in at +2.7% over the prior year during the month of August.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13634

 

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to Monday’s expectation after Friday’s positive close while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Expecting a trip i.e. fall, today to end the month …

The cell and gene therapy sector equities drifted over the past week, as investors digested more signs of cooling inflation amid resilient economic growth data.

  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats

 

Reiterating, “Uncertainty and skepticism reigns … and volatility is on-call in today’s sector.”

  • The fifth week and only session is today as Q2 ends …
  • The 4th week of September’s cell and gene therapy sector closed Thursday positive after Wednesday closed negative; Tuesday closed positive after Monday closed negative
  • The 3rd week of September’s as Friday bombed the sector after Thursday’s sector ascended to new heights after Wednesday declined after Tuesday ascended helped by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” after Monday, bolted to the downside …
  • The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive
  • Following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

 

The Nasdaq has advanced 2.3% in September; while markets had a rough start to what is historically the weakest month for the stock market, but rebounded as September went on with the Fed cutting interest rates by a half point with more volatility anticipated in October

 

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Middle East geopolitical and political risks may be poised to escalate; as any “October surprise” could shift the calculus surrounding the November election leaving investors rattled.

 

For nearly a century, the month has been the worst of the calendar year for stocks, and returns in recent years have been particularly disheartening.

•             A similar seasonal analysis suggests things could get rocky in October, too.

•             During election years, the stock market’s September weakness has tended to spill over into October, according to data from CFRA’s Sam Stovall that dates back to the 1940s.

•             But it’s not just seasonal trends giving investors pause: Any one of a number of catalysts could arrive to rattle investors’ confidence during the month ahead. Notably, while the Fed’s jumbo interest-rate cut helped boost stocks in September, investors won’t be able to fall back on the steady hand of Fed Chair Jerome Powell; the Fed’s next policy meeting isn’t until November.

•             In the interim, they will have to contend with a parade of economic data, with each new data point potentially unearthing new risks. <Yahoo Finance>

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.