September 30, 2024 5:11pm

As I wrote this a.m., expect a trip today to end the month”

Next, October has a troubling history for markets. It’s known as a time of extreme volatility

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +17.15 points or +0.04%, the S&P closed UP +24.31 points or +0.42% while the Nasdaq closed UP +69.58 points or +0.38%

  • Wrapping-up the final trading session of what is shaping up to be a questionable pricing month and quarter.               
  • Markets had a rough start to what is historically the weakest month for the stock market, but rebounded as the Fed cut interest rates by a supersized half point.
  • For the month, the Dow advanced +1.9%, Nasdaq gained +2.7%, while the S&P 500 added 2%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Markets had a rough start to what is historically the weakest month for the stock market, but rebounded as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a supersized half point.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 7 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 18 decliners and 3 flats

  • The cell and gene therapy sector screamed having no ice cream   as pricing power went out

Metrics:  Mondays, the IBB was up +0.48% and the XBI was up +0.39% while the VIX was down -0.23 points or -1.36% at 16.73.

 

As compared to: Friday: The Dow closed UP +137.89 points or +0.33%, the S&P closed DOWN -7.20 points or -0.13% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -70.70 points or -0.39%

  • For the week, the 3 major indexes are higher for the week, with the S&P 500 is up +1% and the Dow +0.7% and the Nasdaq +1%.             

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • August’s personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation — increased 0.1%, matching expectations from economists. PCE increased 2.2% at an annualized pace, below the 2.3% forecast            

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliners, 6 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats

  • Weird stats from me: ups +$0.14 to +$3.49 versus downs -$0.01 to -$0.88

Metrics:  Fridays, the IBB was up +0.46% and the XBI was up +0.24% while the VIX was UP +1.48 points or +9.63% at 15.85.

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 18):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.94 after Friday’s -$0.88),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.79 after Friday’s -$0.25),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.55 after Friday’s -$0.07),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.45 after Friday’s +$0.43),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.34 after Friday’s +$0.83),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.31),
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.30 after Friday’s +$1.79),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0-15)
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.14),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.09)

Flat (3):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 14):

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.12 after Friday’s -$0.79),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.70 after Friday’s +$0.17),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.57 after Friday’s +$0.18),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.41 after Friday’s -$0.10),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.23 after Friday’s -$0.01),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.17 after Friday’s +$0.14)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.13 after Friday’s -$0.03),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.12),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.08 after Friday’s +$0.18),
  • Adverum Therapeutics (ADVM +$0.08 after Friday’s +$0.33),

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “wake up, will Q3, September end today with a downbeat session.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13635

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Q3 ended …

I kept writing about uncertainty and skepticism … the labor releases are as big of a source of inflationary pressures as they are in deflating the cell and gene therapy sector before as the upcoming election which could explain some of the mixed signals coming from the market. This port strike, geopolitic Mid-East, possible FarEast and Yugoslavia warfare could wreck further havoc by the election rhetoric and now the storm wrekage from the hurricane! 

The month of September in review …

  • The 5th week of 1 day closed … NEGATIVE.
  • The 4th week of September’s Friday and Thursday popped to a positive close after Wednesday closed negative; Tuesday closed positive after Monday closed negative …
  • The 3rd week of September’s as Friday bombed the sector after Thursday’s sector ascended to new heights after Wednesday declined after Tuesday ascended helped by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” after Monday, bolted to the downside …
  • The 2nd week’s Friday rapid positive ascension followed Thursday’s positive after Wednesday’s sector gained altitude post Tuesday’s negative drop in the puddle after Monday’s closed positive
  • Following the 1st short week of September ending with 4 negative closes - a bust!

 

Think and read and question … revisionist GDP gov releases:

  • And while the focus what is largely on recent data, the revisions went back several years — and one in particular resulted in a black eye.
  • Initially, the Bureau of Economic Analysis had reported that growth in the US economy declined at a 0.6% annualized rate in Q2/22. This followed a negative print in Q1 and, at the time, stirred recession discussion as 2 negative Qs of GDP is an often-referenced indicator of recession.
  • But after some revisions revealed, it turns out the US never actually had 2 negative Qs of GDP. Revisions to GDP data now show the US economy grew by an annualized rate of 0.6% in the Q2/22.

 

Markets enter Q4, with questionable markets … as ports along the East and Gulf Coasts are bracing for a strike at midnight, as the International Longshoremen's Union is demanding higher pay and protection from automation for its port workers.

  • Some estimates project that a port strike could cost the US $5 billion per day. She notes that the last port strike was in 1977 and lasted for 45 days.
  • Back then, trade only made up 16% of the US economy. Today, that figure is 28%; therefore, a port strike would be a "huge hit on the economy." < Margaret Kidd, University of Houston instructional associate professor of supply chain and logistics technology, told Yahoo Finance>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Monday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Mesoblast (MESO) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • last Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and BEAM Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Last Friday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.