October 2, 2024 7:54am
After the 10/1 global tension and U.S. death, damage and port strike “events”, archive a barely aftermarket response
Although … volatility is opportunity for “some” bargain hunting as cell and gene therapy earnings won’t be released for weeks
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Never leave an investor uninform
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Wednesday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.30% or (-126 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.18% or (-10 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.10% or (-20 points)
- U.S. futures inched down on Wednesday, 10/2
- European stocks were lower near midday trade,
- Asia Pacific markets were mixed
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -473.18 points or -0.41%, the S&P closed DOWN -53.73 points or -0.93% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -278.81 points or -1.53%
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats
Economic Data Docket: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Sept. 27 (11% prior) and ADP private payrolls, September (+120,000 expected, +99,000 prior)
Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “a barrage of negative sentiment hits cell and gene therapy sector. “Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” sold into and out of their positions as volatility destabilized October beginning with Iran missile strike, hurricane Helene deaths/damage and port strike strains confidence. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spiked above 19, hitting its highest level since 9/11, as traders sought safety amid growing tensions in the Middle East. October has a troubling history for markets. It’s known as a time of extreme volatility.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13637
Q43/24: 1 negative close
Q3/24:
- September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
- August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context
I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.
A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to Wednesday’s expectation after all the negativity on Tuesday while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open … it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.
The BOTTOM LINE: My written last week, “October surprise” came to fruition!
Reiterating, “Uncertainty and skepticism reigns … and volatility is on-call after yesterday’s sector close.
An Iranian strike on Israel on Tuesday has sent US markets plummeting with increasing global market uncertainty.
The conflict between Israel and Iran will persist, "what's really unfolding is a war of attrition.
- Yesterday's (Tuesday) strike on Israel was a response from the Iranians, with ballistic missiles being fired over Hezbollah; a pretty significant message from the Iranians and expects a response from Israel.
- The real question is whether or not they're [Israel] going to specifically target Iranian nuclear facilities, which could pose an existential threat to the Iranians." <Carmiel Arbit, a member of the Middle East Programs Atlantic Council>
Events like this have a rapid impact on markets, so wait-and-see adding that "things can turn on a dime; also, too many unforeseen events will keep traders on the edge and negativity views and it's NOT TOO smart to BUY/SELL portfolios in a meaningful way.
Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.
- Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
- I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
- Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
- As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!
Middle East geopolitical and political risks may be poised to escalate; as any could shift the calculus surrounding the November election leaving investors rattled.
Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
