October 3, 2024 4:37pm

Even “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” didn’t visit

After big drops (4 sessions includes last Friday) in the cell and gene therapy sector, I think investors will get a little comfortable with “some” BUY positions before the multiple week’s away earnings releases

Markets are experiencing a period of heightened volatility, driven by a variety of factors including Hurricane Helene, the upcoming US presidential election, and escalating Middle East tensions

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -184.93 points or -0.44%, the S&P closed DOWN -9.58 points or -0.17% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -5.65 points or -0.04%

  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East dampen investors’ enthusiasm

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than economists forecasted.
  • The September jobs report is set to be released on Friday, with economists anticipating nonfarm payrolls will increase by 150,000 compared to 142,000 in August, according to consensus estimates. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, while hourly wages are projected to see a slight decrease to 0.3%, down from August's 0.4%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 76 incliners, 25 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats

  • The cell and gene therapy sector is off to a rocky start in October trading

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.56% and the XBI was down -1.48% while the VIX was up +1.57 points or +8.31% at 20.47

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 21):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.69 after Wednesday’s +$0.76 after Tuesday’s -$2.50),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.02 after Wednesday’s -$4.51 after Tuesday’s +$1.03 after Monday’s +$0.12),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.89 after Wednesday’s -$0.96 after Tuesday’s +$0.96 after Monday’s +$1.12),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.57 after Wednesday’s +$0.31 after Tuesday’s -$0.99 after Monday’s -$0.79),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.90 after Wednesday’s -$0.65 after Tuesday’s -$1.35 after Monday’s -$0.45),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.81 after Wednesday’s +$0.13 after Tuesday’s -$1.40 after Monday’s -$0.34),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.80 after Wednesday’s -$0.17 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 after Monday’s +$0.23),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.57 after Wednesday’s -$0.29),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.56 after Wednesday’s +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$1.09 after Monday’s -$0.55),
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.41 after Wednesday’s +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.94 after Monday’s -$0.30),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.79 after Wednesday’s +$0.49 after Tuesday’s +$0.10 after Monday’s +$0.57),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.65 after Wednesday’s +$0.65 after Tuesday’s -$2.20 after Monday’s -$0.94),
  • Adverum Therapeutics (ADVM +$0.46 after Wednesday’s +$0.23 after Tuesday’s -$0.43 after Monday’s +$0.08),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.17),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.10 after Wednesday’s $0.00)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.08 after Wednesday’s -$0.16),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.04 after Wednesday’s +$0.15 after Tuesday’s -$0.90 after Monday’s +$0.70),
  • bluebird bio (BLOUE +$0.0308),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.02),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.02),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.01),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.01)

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Flippin’ the bird to the downside; so, show me some upside now!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13640

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 3 session close negative

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

From Wednesday, Love the quote:

Is it time to sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur?

  • Investors looking for a strategy to playing the market over the next 10 days may want to take a cue from an age-old Wall Street adage.
  • The saying — known as sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur — suggests that investors should sell into the Jewish new year and buy into the day of atonement.
  • The start of the Jewish new year begins Wednesday evening, with Yom Kippur starting Oct. 11. <Samantha Subin – CNBC>

 

Markets dived escalating volatility:

  • US stocks slid – AGAIN -- on Thursday, Wednesday after Iran fired (Tuesday) over 181 ballistic missiles at Israel, on Tuesday
  • Say 3 of the port strike by dockworkers began on the East and Gulf coasts, threatens to halt the flow of half the US's ocean shipping. Some estimates project that a port strike could cost the US $5 billion per day. She notes that the last port strike was in 1977 and lasted for 45 days.
  • Hurricane Helene damage and deaths grow through-out many southern states.
  • After the debate, the White House’s response to all these above “situations” with the upcoming election also will explain some of the mixed signals coming toward the market

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Thursday: Mesoblast (MESO), Vericel (VCEL) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Tuesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Mesoblast (MESO) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and BEAM Therapeutics (BEAM)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.