October 4, 2024 4:38pm

Early gains set the course, clawing back some of their losses from last and earlier in the week

Markets are experiencing a period of heightened volatility, driven by a variety of factors including mixed messages of government funding of the Hurricane Helene, the upcoming US presidential election, and escalating Middle East tensions

As Friday’s “non-farm” report capped a week of mostly encouraging data

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +341.16 points or +0.81%, the S&P closed UP +51.13 points or +0.90% while the Nasdaq closed UP +219.37 points or +1.22%

  • But Friday’s bounce wasn’t enough to fully erase losses seen in recent days

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 in September, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000-consensus forecast.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1%, as the survey of household employment showed an even stronger picture, with a gain of 430,000.
  • Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. Both figures were ahead of respective estimates

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats

  • The cell and gene therapy sector is back breathing air without a regulator and tank

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +0.90% and the XBI was up +0.90% while the VIX was down -0.79 points or -8.64% at 8.72.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “tensions horns confidence. As growing fears tied to the Middle East and economic releases pushed down sector ownership. September’s jobs picture is expected to look a lot like August’s — a gradual slowdown in hiring and a modest increase in wages.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13643  

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 1 positive and 3 session close negative

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (8 of 8):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.54 after Thursday’s -$2.02 after Wednesday’s -$4.51 after Tuesday’s +$1.03 after Monday’s +$0.12),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$1.40 after Thursday’s +$0.10 and Wednesday’s $0.00)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.35 after Thursday’s +$0.01)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.12 after Thursday’s +$0.08 after Wednesday’s -$0.16),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.086),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.04),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.02),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0115),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 25):

  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ +$3.30 after Thursday’s -$0.41 after Wednesday’s +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.94 after Monday’s -$0.30),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.01 after Thursday’s +$0.65 after Wednesday’s +$0.65 after Tuesday’s -$2.20 after Monday’s -$0.94),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.26 after Thursday’s +$0.79 after Wednesday’s +$0.49 after Tuesday’s +$0.10 after Monday’s +$0.57),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.09 after Thursday’s +$0.02),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.05 after Thursday’s +$0.17),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.54 after Thursday’s -$2.69 after Wednesday’s +$0.76 after Tuesday’s -$2.50),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.47 after Thursday’s -$0.56 after Wednesday’s +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$1.09 after Monday’s -$0.55),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.47 after Thursday’s -$0.81 after Wednesday’s +$0.13 after Tuesday’s -$1.40 after Monday’s -$0.34),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.37 after Thursday’s -$0.57 after Wednesday’s -$0.29),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.34 after Thursday’s -$0.90 after Wednesday’s -$0.65 after Tuesday’s -$1.35 after Monday’s -$0.45),

 

The rest of the week in review:

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -184.93 points or -0.44%, the S&P closed DOWN -9.58 points or -0.17% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -5.65 points or -0.04%

  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East dampen investors’ enthusiasm

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than economists forecasted.
  • The September jobs report is set to be released on Friday, with economists anticipating nonfarm payrolls will increase by 150,000 compared to 142,000 in August, according to consensus estimates. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, while hourly wages are projected to see a slight decrease to 0.3%, down from August's 0.4%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 76 incliners, 25 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats

  • The cell and gene therapy sector is off to a rocky start in October trading

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.56% and the XBI was down -1.48% while the VIX was up +1.57 points or +8.31% at 20.47

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +39.55 points or +0.09%, the S&P closed UP +0.79 points or +0.01% while the Nasdaq closed UP +14.76 points or +0.08%

  • Indexes continued danced around their flatlines entering the final hour of trading.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) the fear gauge, pulled back after a spike on Tuesday.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • US private payroll numbers beat expectations in September, according to the latest ADP report. The data shows that 143,000 jobs were added in the private sector last month, surpassing the projected 125,000 jobs— a significant increase from August's reported 99,000 jobs.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 20 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats

  • Sector eked out a slight gain, as the oversold got grabbed-up …
  • But the overall trend is to the upside

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.02% and the XBI was up +0.12% while the VIX was down -0.34 points or -1.77% at 18.92.

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -473.18 points or -0.41%, the S&P closed DOWN -53.73 points or -0.93% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -278.81 points or -1.53%

  • Iran attack on Israel
  • Traders were also monitoring a strike by members of the International Longshoremen’s Association on the East and Gulf Coasts; while consumers may not feel the pinch immediately, the stoppage could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of millions of dollars.                          

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that new positions rose to just over 8 million, an increase of 329,000 from July and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 7.7 million. The rate as a share of the labor force rose to 4.8%, up 0.2 percentage point.
  • However, hiring declined by 99,000 to 5.32 million, though total separations tumbled below 5 million for the first time since August 2020, putting the separations rate at 3.1%, tied for the lowest since December 2012.
  • The ISM manufacturing reading for September came in unchanged at 47.2%, representing the share of companies reporting expansion. That was slightly below the 47.5% forecast. The employment, inventories and prices indexes all showed declines, while the production measure rose. <CNBC>

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

  • As the Russell 2000 slid more than 1%. 

Metrics:  Tuesdays, the IBB was down -0.57% and the XBI was down -0.84% while the VIX was up +2.55 points or +15.24% at 19.28

 

 Monday: The Dow closed UP +17.15 points or +0.04%, the S&P closed UP +24.31 points or +0.42% while the Nasdaq closed UP +69.58 points or +0.38%

  • Wrapping-up the final trading session of what is shaping up to be a questionable pricing month and quarter.              
  • Markets had a rough start to what is historically the weakest month for the stock market, but rebounded as the Fed cut interest rates by a supersized half point.
  • For the month, the Dow advanced +1.9%, Nasdaq gained +2.7%, while the S&P 500 added 2%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Markets had a rough start to what is historically the weakest month for the stock market, but rebounded as the Fed cut interest rates by a supersized half point.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 7 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 18 decliners and 3 flats

  • The cell and gene therapy sector screamed having no ice cream   as pricing power went out

Metrics:  Mondays, the IBB was up +0.48% and the XBI was up +0.39% while the VIX was down -0.23 points or -1.36% at 16.73.

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  as I wrote this a.m., “Roll some dice, there are a few BUYs in the sector that is OVERSOLD!”  Good roll … in the big casino.

  • You should be ready to roll the dice or spin the wheel after multiple down sessions buying on pullbacks here, because in my opinion, over time it generally tends to be good for upswings.

In this current position, I will tend to dither as LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 3rd week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

The 1st week of October code-named volatility: The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 32.65 points, or 1.5%, to 2,212.80 …

  • Cell and gene therapy sector stocks popped on Friday as the oversold were recognized after Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday slipped.

 

For the week from AP

  • The S&P 500 is up 12.90 points, or 0.2%.
  • The Dow is up 39.75 points, or 0.1%.
  • The Nasdaq is down 18.26 points, or 0.1%.
  • The Russell 2000 is down 11.91 points, or 0.5%.

For the year:

  • The S&P 500 is up 981.24 points, or 20.6%.
  • The Dow is up 4,663.21 points, or 12.4%.
  • The Nasdaq is up 3,126.50 points, or 20.8%.
  • The Russell 2000 is up 185.72 points, or 9.2%.

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Friday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Vericel (VCEL) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Thursday: Mesoblast (MESO), Vericel (VCEL) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Tuesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Mesoblast (MESO) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and BEAM Therapeutics (BEAM)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.