October 7, 2024 4:34pm

As cell and gene therapy sector and market indexes dive

Pre-open Indication Results: 4 Hits and 1 Miss

As “the only good day was yesterday”, and it was Sunday with markets closed

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -398.51 points or -0.94%, the S&P closed DOWN -55.13 points or -0.96% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -213.95 points or -1.18%

  • Q3 earnings season kicks off
  • Expectations for sector earnings have started to accelerate preps to LPS (loss-per-share) releases

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Key releases in the week ahead include the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday
  • All eyes are on the Middle East as tensions continue to escalate between Israel and Iran
  • Americans today have shifted to believing that the economy is based on who is in office <Brad Smith, Yahoo Finance>             

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 26 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats

  • Lately, it’s a failure to demonstrate potential as share pricings get hammered       

Pre-open Indication Results: 4 Hits < LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.80), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.82), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.12), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.15) > and 1 Miss < Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.25) >

Metrics:  Mondays, the IBB was down -1.20% and the XBI was down -1.21% while the VIX was up +3.42 points or +17.78% at 22.63

 

As compared to: Friday: The Dow closed UP +341.16 points or +0.81%, the S&P closed UP +51.13 points or +0.90% while the Nasdaq closed UP +219.37 points or +1.22%

  • But Friday’s bounce wasn’t enough to fully erase losses seen in recent days

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 in September, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000-consensus forecast.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1%, as the survey of household employment showed an even stronger picture, with a gain of 430,000.
  • Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. Both figures were ahead of respective estimates

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats

  • The cell and gene therapy sector is back breathing air without a regulator and tank

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +0.90% and the XBI was up +0.90% while the VIX was down -0.79 points or -8.64% at 8.72.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: ““record highs, lay low”. Friday’s bounce erased many losses seen in recent days; however, lean pickings going forward. Sector sentiment offset by confidence can be unpredictable; a bad economic report, a geopolitical incident, or Fed decision can swing pricing from directionally in a blink of an eye.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13645

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 1 positive and 4 negative session closes 

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 24):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.30 after Friday’s +$2.01
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.80 after Friday’s +$3.30
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.36),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.22 after Friday’s -$1.54),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.82 after Friday’s +$1.26
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.59),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.32 after Friday’s +$1.09),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.25 after Friday’s +$1.05
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.22),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.21),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing Up (9 of 9):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.71 after Friday’s +$0.54
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.14),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.12 After Friday’s +$0.47
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.08 after Friday’s -$0.35
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.03 after Friday’s +$0.086),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.03),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.0212 after Friday’s -$0.011),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.01 after Monday’s -$0.12
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.01),

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  No joy today … as "the only good day was yesterday”, and it was Sunday with markets closed

  • In this current position, I will tend to dither as LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 3rd week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

 

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Cell and gene therapy sector stocks dive on Monday after popping on Friday after closing negative on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/ - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Friday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Vericel (VCEL) and Mesoblast (MESO)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.