October 8, 2024 7:48am
investors experience volatility increasingly fearful of escalating conflict in the Middle East
News: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE pre-market -$0.87 or -12,95%) shares fell in premarket trading after announcing disappointing topline results from its P2 LIGHTWAVE study of dalzanemdor (SAGE-718) for the treatment of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD). The trial failed to meet its primary endpoint, showing no statistically significant difference between dalzanemdor and placebo.
Pre-open Indications: 1 Sell into Strength, 1 Positive and 1 Negative Indications
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Never leave an investor uninform
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Tuesday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.16% or (+69 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.44% or (+25 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.50% or (+100 points)
- Stock futures rebounded slightly, Tuesday, 10/8,
- European markets were lower,
- Asia Pacific markets declines.
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -398.51 points or -0.94%, the S&P closed DOWN -55.13 points or -0.96% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -213.95 points or -1.18%
- Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
Economic Data Docket: economic data on small businesses and the trade deficit. They’ll also monitor speaking engagements scheduled throughout the day for central bank leaders including Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
Monday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “no joy as cell and gene therapy sector and market indexes dive.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13646
Q43/24: 1 positive and 4 negative closes
Q3/24:
- September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
- August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context
I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.
A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Monday and Friday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$0.71 after Friday’s +$0.54 with a neutral pre-open
Positive Indication:
Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.12 after Friday’s +$0.47, Thursday’s -$0.81, Wednesday’s +$0.13, Tuesday’s -$1.40 and last Monday’s -$0.34 with a positive +$0.26 or +0.57% aftermarket
Negative Indications:
Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.08 with a negative -$0.87 or -12.9% pre-open over BAD news after disappointing topline results from a P2.
The BOTTOM LINE: Could a sector FAILURE in a P2 stifle others in the day’s session.
- The cell and gene therapy sector dived Monday after jumping higher Friday after diving lower on Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday; October’s beginning.
As I wrote Thursday: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!
Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:
- 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
- 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats
Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.
- Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
- I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
- Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
- As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!
Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
