October 8, 2024 4:37pm

I expect that hurricane Milton after Helene storm's economic impact will affect economic data in the short and near term

Pre-open Indication Results: 2 Hits and 1 Miss

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +126.13 points or +0.30%, the S&P closed UP +55.19 points or +0.97% while the Nasdaq closed UP +259.01 points or +1.45%

  • Rebound on Tuesday following a losing session with oil prices and bond yields in focus as Wall Street assessed ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index hit a record high as small business owners report persistent inflation pressures and uncertainty around the upcoming election.            

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 21 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats

  • A slightly negative close as trepidation nails it on the head                         

Pre-open Indication Results: 2 Hits < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.84), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.29)> and 1 Miss < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.29) >

Metrics:  Tuesdays, the IBB was up +0.58% and the XBI was up +0.80% while the VIX was down -1.17 points or -5.17% at 21.47

 

As compared to: Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -398.51 points or -0.94%, the S&P closed DOWN -55.13 points or -0.96% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -213.95 points or -1.18%

  • Q3 earnings season kicks off
  • Expectations for sector earnings have started to accelerate preps to LPS (loss-per-share) releases

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Key releases in the week ahead include the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday
  • All eyes are on the Middle East as tensions continue to escalate between Israel and Iran
  • Americans today have shifted to believing that the economy is based on who is in office <Brad Smith, Yahoo Finance>             

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 26 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats

  • Lately, it’s a failure to demonstrate potential as share pricings get hammered       

Pre-open Indication Results: 4 Hits < LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.80), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.82), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.12), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.15) > and 1 Miss < Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.25) >

Metrics:  Mondays, the IBB was down -1.20% and the XBI was down -1.21% while the VIX was up +3.42 points or +17.78% at 22.63

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Bending any trend, a delicate balance.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13647

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 1 positive and 5  negative closes

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 17):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.84 after Monday’s +$0.71)
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.44 after Monday’s -$0.82)
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.29 after Monday’s +$0.12)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.29 after Monday’s +$0.08
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.27 after Monday’s -$0.21),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.21 after Monday’s -$0.59),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.21 after Monday’s +$0.01),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.16),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.13),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.10 after Monday’s -$0.22),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.42 after Monday’s -$1.22),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.87 after Monday’s -$1.36),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.59 after Monday’s -$0.32),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.49 after Monday’s +$0.01),
  • LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.43 after Monday’s -$1.80),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.29 after Monday’s -$0.25),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.29 after Monday’s -$2.30),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (BCLI +$0.17),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.14),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.07),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Cell and gene therapy sector stock’s share pricing fluctuates with a slight downturn as Monday's negative close.

After popping on Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

  • Also, CPI inflation report due Thursday, which will provide further clues on the path forward for interest rates.

Q3 earnings reporting period will kick off in earnest when some of the nation's largest banks report Q results on Friday.

  • Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 3rd week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.
  •  

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4 as I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and UniQure NV (QUIRE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.