October 9, 2024 7:50am

After turbulent six (6) October’s sessions for the cell and gene therapy sector

News: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY closed up +$4.42) submitted of its supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to the FDA for vutrisiran, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in development for the treatment of ATTR amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM). Vutrisiran is the generic name for AMVUTTRA®, which is currently approved by the U.S. FDA for the treatment of the polyneuropathy of hereditary ATTR amyloidosis in adults. As part of the submission, utilizing a Priority Review Voucher obligates the FDA to an accelerated review timeline.

Pre-open Indications: 1 Sell into Strength, 2 Positive and 4 Negative Indications

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Wednesday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.05% or (-24 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.03% or (-1 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.07% or (-13 points)

  • U.S. stock futures fell slightly Wednesday,
  • European markets traded slightly higher,
  • Asia Pacific markets were mixed, China sold-off, Japan climbed and South Korea was closed for public holiday.

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +126.13 points or +0.30%, the S&P closed UP +55.19 points or +0.97% while the Nasdaq closed UP +259.01 points or +1.45%

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats

Economic Data Docket: inventories and talking heads

  • 8:00 am                Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives welcoming remarks                                  
  • 9:15 am                Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks                                                
  • 10:00 am             Wholesale inventories   Aug.                      
  • 10:30 am             Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks                                 
  • 12:30 pm             Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks                                                           
  • 2:00 pm               Minutes of Fed's September FOMC meeting                                                       
  • 6:00 pm               San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks   

 

Monday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “sector slightly spikes. I expect that hurricane Milton after Helene storm's economic impact will affect economic data in the short and near term.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13648

 

Q43/24: 1 positive and 5 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

Monday and Friday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +$0.49 after Monday’s +$0.01 with a positive +$0.14 or +1.98% aftermarket

 

Positive Indication:

Tuesday and Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$4.22 with no preopen – a positive

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.27 after Monday’s -$0.21 with a positive +$0.01 or +0.22% aftermarket – look at the chart, it’s worth a “go”

 

Negative Indications:

Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed down -$1.84 after Monday’s +$0.71 and Friday’s +$0.54 with a negative -$0.48 or -0.55% aftermarket

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.29 after Monday’s +$0.12, Friday’s +$0.47, Thursday’s -$0.81 and last Wednesday’s +$0.13, with a negative -$0.10 or -0.22% aftermarket

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.14 with a negative -$0.02 or -0.53% aftermarket

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.29 after Monday’s +$0.08 with a negative -$0.87 or -2.80% aftermarket over BAD news after disappointing topline results from a P2.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Watch your “6” i.e., portfolio …

  • I am wary of the growing lack of positive headlines for the cell and gene therapy sector; a SAGE P2 failure didn’t assist, maybe ALNY will help!

 Q3 earnings will be grabbing that are likely to keep gauging share pricing grabbing investor attention over the next 10 weeks.

  • Rising tensions in the Middle East have sent commodity prices soaring. A looming presidential election is expected to add to volatility. And the current trajectory of the economy — and what it means for Fed interest rate cuts —remains heavily debated. <Josh Schafer, Yahoo Finance>

 

The cell and gene therapy sector dived on Tuesday and Monday after jumping higher Friday after diving lower on Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday; October’s beginning.

  • As I wrote Thursday: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.