October 9, 2024 4:39pm

Sentiment remains multi-directional and other signals suggest continuous headwinds ahead

Pre-open Indication Results: 4 Hits and 3 Miss

There’s still a tug-of-war taking place between the ‘Big 4’ tailwinds (stimulus, disinflation, resilient growth, and healthy corporate performance) and rich valuations *

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +431.63 points or +1.03%, the S&P closed UP +40.91 points or +0.71% while the Nasdaq closed UP +108.70 points or +0.60%

  • Indexes rose for a 2nd day Wednesday, with the S&P 500 jumping to a new record, as investors shook off geopolitical concerns

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will serve as the latest test of whether inflation will continue to ease as the Fed debates its next interest rate decision. The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.3%        

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat

  • Lately, it’s a failure to demonstrate potential as share pricings get hammered       

Pre-open Indication Results: 4 Hits < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.10), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.17), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.05), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.20) and 3 Miss < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.29), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.22), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.06) >

Metrics:  Wednesdays, the IBB was up +0.10% and the XBI was down -0.79% while the VIX was down -0.59 points or -2.75% at 20.83

Continued from the sub-title, “… and the result is an SPX that’s caught in a sideways price pattern,” < Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli>

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Another bout of volatility, our benefit? After turbulent six (6) October’s sessions for the cell and gene therapy sector.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13649

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 1 positive and 6 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 20):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.40 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 after Monday’s -$2.30),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.36 after Tuesday’s -$0.44 after Monday’s -$0.82)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.34 after Tuesday’s -$0.21 after Monday’s -$0.59),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.32),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 after Monday’s -$0.25),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.31 after Tuesday’s +$0.59 after Monday’s -$0.32),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.30),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 after Monday’s -$1.22),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.24),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.22),

Private (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 14):

  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.47),
  • Ions Pharmaceuticals IONS +$0.26),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.20 after Tuesday’s -$0.29 after Monday’s +$0.12)
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.18 after Tuesday’s -$0.13),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.12),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.10 after Monday’s -$0.22),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$1.84 after Monday’s +$0.71)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.08 after Tuesday’s +$0.87 after Monday’s -$1.36),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.08),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.29 after Monday’s +$0.08),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  another session of “whack a mole” of share pricing.

  • There are more upside risks to consider, as the list grows.

Cell and gene therapy sector equities fluctuated on Wednesday; Tuesday with Monday's negative close.

  • After popping on Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

Q3 earnings reporting period will kick off in earnest when some of the nation's largest banks report Q results on Friday.

  • Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 3rd week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

 

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

 

 I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and UniQure NV (QUIRE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Mesoblast (MESO) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.