October 10, 2024 8:23am

Be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4

Initial filings for unemployment benefits took an unexpected turn higher, hitting 258,000 for the week ending Oct. 5. That was the highest total since Aug. 5, 2023 a gain of 33,000 from the previous week and well above the forecast for 230,000.

The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment for 2025.

Disappointment, the consumer price index, a broad gauge measuring the costs of goods and services across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both readings were 0.1% point above the consensus. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% on the month, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings also were 0.1% point above forecast.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninformed

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Thursday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.23% or (-98 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.34% or (-19 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.50% or (-102 points)

  • U.S. stock futures slipped Thursday, 10/10/24
  • European markets slipped,
  • Asia-Pacific markets closed higher.

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +431.63 points or +1.03%, the S&P closed UP +40.91 points or +0.71% while the Nasdaq closed UP +108.70 points or +0.60%

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat

Economic Data Docket: Initial Jobless Claims, CPI and talking heads                                       

  • 8:30 am                Initial jobless claims       
  • 8:30 am                Consumer price index   
  • 8"30 am               Core CPI              
  • 8:30 am                CPI year over year                                           
  • 8:30 am                Core CPI year over year                                
  • 9:15 am                Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks                                                 
  • 10:30 am             Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks                                                        
  • 11:00 am             New York Fed President John Williams speaks                    

 

Wednesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “the domino effect. Sentiment remains multi-directional and other signals suggest continuous headwinds ahead.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13650

 

Q43/24: 1 positive and 6 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and CPI expectation after all the negativity this week while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: vulnerabilities exist … keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button

  • As the cell and gene therapy sector dived again Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes after jumping higher Friday, diving lower on Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday; October’s beginning.

 

As I wrote Thursday: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 -Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

For the week:

  • The S&P 500 is up 40.97 points, or 0.7%.
  • The Dow is down 159.25 points, or 0.4%.
  • The Nasdaq is up 153.77 points, or 0.8%.
  • The Russell 2000 is down 12.21 points, or 0.6%.

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.