October 10, 2024 4:33pm

Today is being driven mostly by September’s higher inflation consumer price index (CPI) report and weak labor market

Interesting, “Atlanta Fed President Bostic told the WSJ he was okay with standing pat at November’s rate meeting, instead of cutting like market wants”

There’s still a tug-of-war taking place between the ‘Big 4’ tailwinds (stimulus, disinflation, resilient growth, and healthy corporate performance) and rich valuations *

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -57.88 points or -0.14%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.99 points or -0.21% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -9.57 points or -0.05%

  • Indexes dived after data showing “sticky” inflation and weakened labor market

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both were 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast.
  • Initial filings for unemployment benefits took an unexpected turn higher, hitting as seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ending Oct. 5, the highest total since Aug. 5, 2023.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats

  • Continually, it’s a failure to demonstrate potential as share pricings get hammered, yet again        

Metrics:  Thursdays, the IBB was up +0.01% and the XBI was down -0.09% while the VIX was up +0.03 points or +0.14% at 20.89

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “looking for catalysts.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13651

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 1 positive and 7 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 21):

  • Moderna (MRNA -$2.03 after Wednesday’s +$0.47),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.20 after Wednesday’s -$0.34 after Tuesday’s -$0.21 after Monday’s -$0.59),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.40 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 after Monday’s -$2.30),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.86),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.85),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.61 after Wednesday’s +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$1.84 after Monday’s +$0.71)
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.41 after Wednesday’s +$0.18 after Tuesday’s -$0.13),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.40 after Wednesday’s +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.10 after Monday’s -$0.22),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.19 after Wednesday’s -$0.31 after Tuesday’s +$0.59 after Monday’s -$0.32),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.16)

Private (2):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)

Thursday’s Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$7.72 after Wednesday’s -$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 after Monday’s -$1.22),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$0.30),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.49 after Wednesday’s -$0.08 after Tuesday’s +$0.87 after Monday’s -$1.36),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.24),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.36 after Tuesday’s -$0.44 after Monday’s -$0.82)
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.12),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.11 after Wednesday’s -$0.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 after Monday’s -$0.25),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.05 after Wednesday’s -$0.32),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.0356),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.03),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.02),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.0002)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  another session of “whack a mole” share pricing.

There are more upside risks to consider, as the list grows.

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities fluctuated NEGATIVE on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday with Monday's negative close.

  • After popping on Last Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.
  • On the margins, people are selling off small and mid- cap stocks that are a little bit more rate sensitive.”

 

Q3 earnings reporting period will kick off in earnest when some of the nation's largest banks report Q results on Friday.

  • Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 3rd week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

 

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

 

Interesting, Donald Trump and his top allies quickly jumped on a hotter-than-expected inflation report Thursday to slam the Biden/Harris administration, the Federal Reserve and central bank chairman Jerome Powell.

  • "The fact is that the Federal Reserve brought the interest rates down a little too quickly," former President Donald Trump said Thursday afternoon during an appearance at the Detroit Economic Club.

 

 I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of x incliner, xx decliners and x flat
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and UniQure NV (QUIRE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Moderna (MRNA), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Mesoblast (MESO) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.