October 11, 2024 7:57am
Is it time, Warren Buffett once said that it's wise for investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful”?
News: bluebird bio’s (BLUE) gene therapy Skysona (elivaldogene autotemcel) side effects have been thrust back into the spotlight after new data shows 7 children who took part in its clinical studies went on to develop a type of blood cancer. The findings, from a study published in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)yesterday (9 October), show that 7 out of 67 patients under 18 years of age who took part in a P2 and P3 trial for Skysona developed haematologic cancers.
Wholesale prices were flat in September, below expectations
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Never leave an investor uninform
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Friday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.01% or (-3 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.09% or (-5 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.31% or (-62 points)
- Stock futures were down yet barely on Friday, 10/11/24
- European markets slipped,
- Asia-Pacific markets fell.
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -57.88 points or -0.14%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.99 points or -0.21% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -9.57 points or -0.05%
- Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
Economists expect the PPI index to have risen 0.1% in September on a monthly basis. Excluding food and energy costs, they forecast a 0.2% advance.
Economic Data Docket: PPI and Consumer Sentiment
- 8:30 am Producer price index
- 8:30 am Core PPI
- 8:30 am PPI year over year
- 8:30 am Core PPI year over year
- 9:45 am Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks
- 10:00 am Consumer sentiment (prelim)
- 10:45 am Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
- 1:10 pm Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks
Thursday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “domino sector falling effect’s chain reaction. Today is being driven mostly by September’s higher inflation consumer price index (CPI) report and weak labor market. Interesting, “Atlanta Fed President Bostic told the WSJ he was okay with standing pat at November’s rate meeting, instead of cutting like market wants”. There’s still a tug-of-war taking place between the ‘Big 4’ tailwinds (stimulus, disinflation, resilient growth, and healthy corporate performance) and rich valuations” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13652
Q43/24: 1 positive and 7 negative closes
Q3/24:
- September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
- August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context
I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.
A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to PPI and consumer credit expectation after all the negativity this week while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open … it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.
The BOTTOM LINE: vulnerabilities STILL exist … keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button
As the cell and gene therapy sector dived again Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes after a positive last Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday; October’s beginning.
As I wrote LAST Thursday: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!
Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:
- 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
- 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/7 -Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
- 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats
For the week:
- The S&P 500 is up 28.98 points, or 0.5%.
- The Dow is up 101.37 points, or 0.2%.
- The Nasdaq is up 144.20 points, or 0.8%.
- The Russell 2000 is down 24.38 points, or 1.1%.
Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.
- Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
- I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
- Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
- As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!
Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
