October 11, 2024 4:52pm

Thank you, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs; yet there is more risk going forward … as earnings season releases are coming and capital market access is limited

However, “When I write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in review

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +409.74 points or +0.97%, the S&P closed UP +34.98 points or +0.61% while the Nasdaq closed UP +60.89 points or +0.33%

  • Indexes jumped with the Dow and S&P hitting new highs
  • The major averages are headed for weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up +1.1%, the Dow +1.2% gain, and the Nasdaq +1.1%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • University of Michigan survey’s consumer confidence moved lower in October posting a reading of 68.9, down 1.7% from September and below the consensus forecast for 71. The index, though, was up 8% from a year ago. The current conditions index fell 0.9% on the month.
  • On inflation, the one-year outlook rose to 2.9%, a 0.2%-point increase and the highest level since June

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliners, 14 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close at the close of 32 incliner, 1 decliner and 2 flats

  • A pop was needed for the oversold

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +1.70% and the XBI was up +2.56% while the VIX was down -0.47 points or -2.24% at 20.46

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “after sector stumbles another inflation reading. Is it time, Warren Buffett once said that it's wise for investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful”? Wholesale prices were flat in September, below expectations … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13653

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 2 positive and 7 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (1 of 1):

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.095)

Flat (2):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 32):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.70 after Thursday’s +$7.72 after Wednesday’s -$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 after Monday’s -$1.22),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.84 after Thursday’s -$0.61 after Wednesday’s +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$1.84 after Monday’s +$0.71)
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.69 after Thursday’s -$0.41 after Wednesday’s +$0.18 after Tuesday’s -$0.13),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.59 after Thursday’s -$2.03 after Wednesday’s +$0.47),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.60 after Thursday’s -$0.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.40 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 after Monday’s -$2.30),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.42),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.23 after Thursday’s +$0.49 after Wednesday’s -$0.08 after Tuesday’s +$0.87 after Monday’s -$1.36),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.11 after Thursday’s -$0.85),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$1.11),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.79 after Thursday’s +$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.24),

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -57.88 points or -0.14%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.99 points or -0.21% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -9.57 points or -0.05%

  • Indexes dived after data showing “sticky” inflation and weakened labor market

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both were 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast.
  • Initial filings for unemployment benefits took an unexpected turn higher, hitting as seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ending Oct. 5, the highest total since Aug. 5, 2023.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats

  • Continually, it’s a failure to demonstrate potential as share pricings get hammered, yet again        

Metrics:  Thursdays, the IBB was up +0.01% and the XBI was down -0.09% while the VIX was up +0.03 points or +0.14% at 20.89

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +431.63 points or +1.03%, the S&P closed UP +40.91 points or +0.71% while the Nasdaq closed UP +108.70 points or +0.60%

  • Indexes rose for a 2nd day Wednesday, with the S&P 500 jumping to a new record, as investors shook off geopolitical concerns

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will serve as the latest test of whether inflation will continue to ease as the Fed debates its next interest rate decision. The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.3%       

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat

  • Lately, it’s a failure to demonstrate potential as share pricings get hammered      

Pre-open Indication Results: 4 Hits < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.10), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.17), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.05), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.20) and 3 Miss < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.29), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.22), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.06) >

Metrics:  Wednesdays, the IBB was up +0.10% and the XBI was down -0.79% while the VIX was down -0.59 points or -2.75% at 20.83

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +126.13 points or +0.30%, the S&P closed UP +55.19 points or +0.97% while the Nasdaq closed UP +259.01 points or +1.45%

  • Rebound on Tuesday following a losing session with oil prices and bond yields in focus as Wall Street assessed ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index hit a record high as small business owners report persistent inflation pressures and uncertainty around the upcoming election.           

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 21 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats

  • A slightly negative close as trepidation nails it on the head                        

Pre-open Indication Results: 2 Hits < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.84), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.29)> and 1 Miss < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.29) >

Metrics:  Tuesdays, the IBB was up +0.58% and the XBI was up +0.80% while the VIX was down -1.17 points or -5.17% at 21.47

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -398.51 points or -0.94%, the S&P closed DOWN -55.13 points or -0.96% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -213.95 points or -1.18%

  • Q3 earnings season kicks off
  • Expectations for sector earnings have started to accelerate preps to LPS (loss-per-share) releases

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Key releases in the week ahead include the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday
  • All eyes are on the Middle East as tensions continue to escalate between Israel and Iran
  • Americans today have shifted to believing that the economy is based on who is in office <Brad Smith, Yahoo Finance>            

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 26 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats

  • Lately, it’s a failure to demonstrate potential as share pricings get hammered      

Pre-open Indication Results: 4 Hits < LENZ Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.80), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.82), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.12), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.15) > and 1 Miss < Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.25) >

Metrics:  Mondays, the IBB was down -1.20% and the XBI was down -1.21% while the VIX was up +3.42 points or +17.78% at 22.63

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I write about MY areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.

  • After popping on Last Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.
  • On the margins, people are selling off small and mid- cap stocks that are a little bit more rate sensitive.”

 

Q3 earnings reporting period will kick off in earnest when some of the nation's largest banks report Q results on Friday.

  • Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 3rd week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.
  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

 

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/11 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliner, 1 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and UniQure NV (QUIRE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Thursday: Moderna (MRNA), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Mesoblast (MESO) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.